Ares Management Slides 4.59% As Technicals Signal Bearish Momentum Below Key Support

Ares Management (ARES) closed at $180.59 on August 19, 2025, declining 4.59% during the session with an intraday low of $179.37 and high of $189.76. This analysis evaluates key technical indicators to assess the stock’s trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks reveal bearish momentum, with the August 19 session printing a long red candle closing near its low after breaching the $183–$185 support zone (July 21–24 lows). The failure to sustain above $189.76 resistance highlights selling pressure. Key support now resides near $178–$179, aligning with the July 21 swing low ($178.38). Resistance is established at $189–$191, reinforced by the August 14–15 highs.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) near $185 has crossed below the 100-day MA (approximately $178), signaling short-term bearish momentum. The 200-day MA (around $170) remains in an uptrend, affirming the longer-term bullish bias. The current price ($180.59) trading below the 50-day MA but above the 100-day and 200-day MAs suggests intermediate-term consolidation within a broader uptrend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows persistent negative momentum, with the MACD line below its signal line since mid-August, indicating bearish continuation. However, the KDJ oscillator presents a near-term oversold signal: The %K value (7.7) and %J (-3.0) are deeply oversold (August 19 calculation: %K = [(180.59 - 179.37) / (195.26 - 179.37)] × 100 = 7.7). This divergence suggests potential exhaustion in downward momentum, though sustained values below 20 warrant caution.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands expanded sharply on August 19, reflecting heightened volatility during the sell-off. The price closed near the lower band ($179), typically an oversold signal. While this may foreshadow a mean-reversion bounce, the band expansion supports continued near-term volatility. A close above the 20-day moving average (~$185) would signal stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 73% on August 19 relative to the prior session, confirming the bearish price move. This distribution pattern—higher volume on down days—implies institutional selling. Conversely, the August 12 rally (+3.33%) saw only moderate volume, undermining its sustainability. Volume divergence remains a concern for recovery attempts.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (approximated at 28) entered oversold territory, its lowest level since April 2025. While this suggests depleted selling pressure, RSI divergence is absent; prior lows (e.g., July 21) coincided with similarly depressed RSI readings. A rebound above 30 is needed to support reversal potential.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the 2025 swing high ($199.94 on January 31) and swing low ($113.24 on April 4), key retracement levels are $179.48 (23.6%) and $166.82 (38.2%). The August 19 low ($179.37) tested the 23.6% support level, aligning with historical swing lows ($178.38). Confluence at this zone may offer technical support. A decisive break below $179.48 would expose the 38.2% retracement.
Confluence and Divergence
Significant confluence exists near $178–$179, combining the 23.6% Fibonacci level, July 21 price low, and lower Bollinger Band. This enhances support validity. However, bearish divergences emerge: MACD deterioration contrasts with oversold KDJ/RSI readings, reflecting internal conflict between momentum and reversal signals. The high-volume breakdown below the 50-day MA favors near-term caution, though oversold oscillators increase rebound probability.