Ares Management Plunges 7.13% as Bearish Signals Intensify With Death Cross

Candlestick Theory
Ares Management (ARES) exhibits a pronounced bearish trend, closing at $168.23 after a 7.13% decline, marking four consecutive red candlesticks with increasing range and volatility. The most recent session formed a long-bodied bearish candle, breaching the psychological support near $170 and confirming selling pressure. Key resistance now lies at the $181–$183 zone (recent consolidation area), while immediate support is near $167.75 (September 24 low). A breakdown below this level may target the $160–$162 region, aligning with historical accumulation points from May–June 2025. The absence of reversal patterns (e.g., hammers, engulfing) suggests continued bearish dominance.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all slope downward, confirming a sustained bearish trend. Price trades below all three averages ($182, $178, and $171, respectively), with the 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA (death cross) in late August, signaling long-term bearish momentum. The widening gap between price and these averages highlights strong downward inertia. Reclaiming the 200-day MA near $171 would require significant bullish volume, currently lacking.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram deepens in negative territory, with the signal line accelerating below zero, reinforcing bearish momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ shows an oversold condition (K=15, D=21, J=3) but remains embedded without bullish crossover—a sign of persistent downward pressure. While both indicators reflect extreme oversold readings, their failure to generate reversal signals suggests further downside potential before stabilization.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the 7.13% sell-off, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band (≈$172), signaling capitulation. The bands had narrowed significantly in late August–early September, foreshadowing this volatility surge. Prices closing below the lower band historically precede short-term rebounds but validate bearish momentum. A sustained move back inside the bands is needed to suggest stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
The latest session’s volume (1.82M shares) surged 72% above the 20-day average, confirming bearish conviction. Notably, each down day in the four-session decline saw higher volume than up days in prior consolidations, indicating distribution. The volume spike on breakdowns (e.g., August 19, September 24) contrasts with muted volume on recoveries, undermining sustainability in any rebound attempts.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI plunged to 26.2, deep in oversold territory (<30). While such extremes often precede technical rebounds, the absence of bullish divergence (price and RSI both making lower lows) tempers reversal expectations. Historically, ARES’ RSI has lingered below 30 for extended periods during bearish phases (e.g., October 2024), underscoring its role as a warning rather than a timing tool.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the April 2024 low ($118.04) and June 2025 high ($200.48), key retracement zones emerge. The 50% retracement ($159.26) and 61.8% level ($151.80) offer critical downside targets, now in focus after breaching the 38.2% support ($170.25). The latest breakdown aligns with the 38.2% retracement acting as resistance, suggesting bearish continuation toward $159–$151.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence is evident across indicators: moving averages stack bearishly, volume validates breakdowns, MACD/KDJ agree on oversold but non-reversal conditions, and Bollinger Band expansion confirms volatility-driven declines. RSI’s oversold reading diverges slightly by suggesting potential exhaustion, yet lacks corroboration from price action or volume. The $160–$162 area (Fibonacci 50% + historic support) presents a high-probability bounce zone, but only sustained volume-driven reversal patterns would alter the bearish trajectory. Probabilistically, the path of least resistance remains downward until RSI divergence forms or price reclaims the 200-day MA.