Ares Management Plummets 3.05% Amid Record $7.1 Billion Credit Secondaries Fundraise

Summary
• Ares Management (ARES) announces $7.1 billion institutional fundraise for Credit Secondaries strategy
• ENGIE and Ares expand partnership with 730 MW renewable energy portfolio
• CI Global Asset Management acquires Invesco's Canadian fund business
• ARES trades at $168.97, down 3.05% from $174.29, with intraday range of $167.47–$174.49. The stock’s sharp decline contrasts with a sector backdrop marked by CI’s $26B AUM expansion and BlackRock’s -1.18% intraday drop. Traders are dissecting the interplay between Ares’ landmark fundraise and its technical indicators, which suggest a critical juncture for the stock.

Fundraising Success Fails to Offset Profit-Taking and Valuation Concerns
Ares Management’s record $7.1 billion fundraise for its Credit Secondaries strategy—a 220% oversubscription—should have bolstered investor confidence. However, the stock’s 3.05% intraday drop reflects profit-taking after a 52-week high of $200.49 and skepticism over its 104.3x dynamic P/E ratio. The move aligns with broader market caution toward high-valuation asset managers, as BlackRock (BLK) also fell 1.18%. While the fundraise underscores Ares’ leadership in credit secondaries, the stock’s 52-week range of $110.63–$200.49 suggests traders are hedging against overvaluation risks.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Key Support Levels
• 200-day MA: $164.85 (near current price)
• RSI: 60.54 (neutral)
• MACD: 3.16 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $161.83–$178.45 (current price near lower band)
• 30D support/resistance: $168.42–$168.85 (critical cluster)
• 200D support/resistance: $177.82–$179.31 (unreachable for now)

ARES is trading near its 200-day MA and lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential bounce or consolidation. The RSI at 60.54 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram’s positive divergence hints at short-term bullish momentum. However, the stock’s 104.3x P/E ratio and 52-week range suggest a long-term range-bound profile. No leveraged ETF data is available, but the options chain offers high-leverage plays for directional bets.

Top Option 1: ARES20260220P170 (Put Option)
• Code: ARES20260220P170
• Type: Put
• Strike Price: $170
• Expiration: 2026-02-20
• IV: 33.43% (moderate)
• LVR: 21.95% (high)
• Delta: -0.4914 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0503 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0215 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 4,470 (liquid)
• IV: Implied volatility suggests market expects moderate price swings
• LVR: High leverage amplifies returns on directional moves
• Delta: -0.4914 indicates 49% price sensitivity to ARES’ movement
• Theta: -0.0503 implies $0.05 daily decay, manageable for short-term plays
• Gamma: 0.0215 means delta becomes more negative as ARES falls, enhancing payoff
• Turnover: 4,470 ensures liquidity for entry/exit
• Payoff at 5% downside (ST = $160.52): $9.48 per contract
• This put option stands out for its high leverage and gamma, ideal for a bearish scenario where ARES breaks below $168.42 support. The moderate IV and liquid turnover make it a viable short-term hedge.

Top Option 2: ARES20260220P175 (Put Option)
• Code: ARES20260220P175
• Type: Put
• Strike Price: $175
• Expiration: 2026-02-20
• IV: 30.46% (moderate)
• LVR: 16.90% (high)
• Delta: -0.6091 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0276 (low time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0227 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 2,000 (liquid)
• IV: 30.46% suggests lower volatility expectations
• LVR: 16.90% offers directional amplification
• Delta: -0.6091 means 61% price sensitivity to ARES’ movement
• Theta: -0.0276 implies minimal daily decay, favorable for holding
• Gamma: 0.0227 ensures delta becomes more negative as ARES falls, boosting payoff
• Turnover: 2,000 supports liquidity
• Payoff at 5% downside (ST = $160.52): $14.48 per contract
• This put option excels in a deep bearish scenario, with high delta and gamma amplifying returns if ARES collapses below $164.85. The low theta decay makes it suitable for holding until expiration.

Backtest Ares Management Stock Performance
The performance of ARES (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) after a -3% intraday plunge from 2022 to now has shown positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data indicates that the 3-Day win rate is 57.29%, the 10-Day win rate is 62.33%, and the 30-Day win rate is 73.21%. Additionally, the 3-Day return is 0.60%, the 10-Day return is 1.58%, and the 30-Day return is 4.23%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 8.11%, which occurred on day 59.

Critical Support Watch: ARES at $164.85, Sector Leader BLK at -1.18%
Ares Management’s 3.05% intraday drop has brought it to a pivotal juncture near its 200-day MA and lower Bollinger Band. While the $7.1 billion fundraise signals long-term strength, the stock’s 104.3x P/E ratio and 52-week range suggest near-term consolidation. Traders should monitor the $164.85 support level and the 200D resistance at $177.82. The options chain offers high-leverage puts for bearish scenarios, particularly if ARES breaks below $168.42. Meanwhile, sector leader BlackRock’s -1.18% decline highlights broader asset management sector fragility. Action: Watch for a breakdown below $164.85 or a reversal above $170.00 to gauge the stock’s next move.