Ares Management Jumps 4.14% as Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal From $140.88 Low

Ares Management (ARES) rose 4.14% in the latest session, marking its second consecutive day of gains with a cumulative 6.18% increase over this period. This recovery follows a significant decline to $140.88 on 2025-10-10, with recent price action showing renewed bullish momentum. Below is a comprehensive technical analysis based on the one-year dataset.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal a bullish reversal pattern near the $140.88 support level (2025-10-10 low). The 2025-10-14 candle closed near its high ($149.58) after testing $141.51, forming a hammer-like pattern. Resistance is evident at $152.40 (2025-10-03 high), which aligns with the psychologically significant $150 threshold. A sustained break above this resistance would signal bullish confirmation, while failure may reactivate support at $140.88.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($167.23) crossed below both the 100-day ($165.98) and 200-day MAs ($165.34) in early October, confirming a bearish trend structure. Current price ($149.58) trades significantly below all three moving averages, indicating persistent downward pressure. However, the sharp two-day rebound suggests potential short-term mean reversion toward the 50-day MA. The death cross configuration (50<100<200) underscores the dominant bearish bias.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum, with the MACD line (-3.65) attempting to converge toward its signal line (-3.31). KDJ registers a bullish crossover with %K (35.2) rising above %D (30.5) from oversold territory. This divergence suggests waning selling pressure. While MACD remains below its zero line, the KDJ recovery implies growing short-term bullish potential, though confirmation requires MACD crossing above its signal line.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2SD) contracted sharply during the mid-October decline ($152.40 to $140.88), signaling reduced volatility. The price has now rebounded above the middle band ($147.76), touching the upper band at $151.75 in the latest session. This breakout from the squeeze suggests renewed directional momentum, with a sustained position above $147.76 supporting further upside toward the $160.34 upper band.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 3.76 million shares during the 4.14% rally on 2025-10-14 – the highest since 2025-10-03’s distribution day – validating bullish conviction. This contrasts with the lighter volume (1.79-2.00 million) during the preceding consolidation. The volume profile confirms accumulation near the $140-142 support zone, enhancing the legitimacy of the current rebound. Consistent volume above 3 million shares would reinforce the recovery’s sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (47.5) has rebounded from oversold levels (28.6 on 2025-10-10) but remains below the neutral 50 threshold. This recovery from oversold territory lacks extreme readings, reducing false signal risks. The bullish RSI divergence (price made lower lows while RSI formed higher lows from 2025-10-10 to 2025-10-14) suggests underlying strength. However, failure to breach 50 would indicate residual bearish control.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the recent swing high ($152.40 on 2025-10-03) and swing low ($140.88 on 2025-10-10), key retracement levels emerge: 23.6% ($142.77), 38.2% ($144.95), and 61.8% ($148.33). The price has decisively surpassed the 61.8% level, closing at $149.58. This extension signals strong bullish momentum targeting the 100% retracement at $152.40. The Fibonacci structure now supports $148.33 as critical near-term support.
Confluence and Divergence Insights
Notable confluence exists at $152.40, where Bollinger Band resistance, Fibonacci 100% retracement, and the 2025-10-03 swing high converge – a decisive breach could accelerate bullish momentum. Bullish divergences are observed between KDJ/RSI momentum oscillators and price action during the October decline. However, bearish moving average alignment tempers optimism, requiring sustained closes above $150 to challenge the broader downtrend. Volume validation during the rebound increases confidence in near-term upside continuation toward the $152-153 resistance zone.