Ares Management Drops 3.24% As Technicals Signal Bearish Momentum Below Key 180 Resistance

Ares Management (ARES) declined 3.24% in the latest session, closing at 174.49 after trading between 174.36 and 180.09. This analysis examines the technical context of this movement through multiple indicators.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal significant bearish signals, including a shooting star formation on July 14 (open: 176.75, close: 180.34) followed by a decisive bearish engulfing candle on July 15, confirming resistance near 181.00. The price has established immediate support at 172.62 (July 7 low), with secondary support at 167.59 (May 23 low). Resistance remains firm between 180.09–181.55, marking the July 14–15 swing high zone. This two-day reversal pattern suggests waning bullish momentum near the psychological 180 barrier.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (currently ∼168) remains above the 100-day SMA (∼165) and 200-day SMA (∼158), preserving the long-term bullish sequence. However, the current price (174.49) has retreated below the 10-day EMA, indicating short-term momentum loss. The converging 50-day and 100-day SMAs suggest a potential volatility inflection point, though the primary uptrend remains intact while prices hold above the 200-day SMA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has entered negative territory following a bearish crossover, with the signal line now above the MACD line, indicating building downward momentum. KDJ readings show the %K line (20.94) crossing below the %D line (45.10) near oversold territory. While KDJ’s sub-20 level historically precedes short-term rebounds, the MACD’s persistent negative divergence suggests any bounce may be corrective rather than trend-reversing.
Bollinger Bands
Price breached the lower Bollinger Band (177.50) on July 15 during its decline, triggering an oversold signal historically associated with technical rebounds. Band width expanded by 18% during this move, reflecting elevated volatility. However, the pronounced close below the 20-day SMA-centered midline suggests continued bearish pressure. A close back inside the bands would support stabilization, while prolonged lower-band contact could signal further downside.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns are emerging, with July 14’s 1.33M share advance eclipsed by July 15’s 1.08M share decline. While the down-volume spike wasn’t climactic, diminishing volume during the July 9–11 consolidation preceded the breakdown. Volume profiles highlight high-interest zones at 170–172 (support) and 179–181 (resistance), with below-average volume on recovery attempts suggesting weak conviction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (44.7) retreated sharply from a July 14 reading (58.2) as momentum waned near overbought territory. It now sits near equilibrium, reflecting balanced buying/selling pressure. While approaching the 30–50 support zone where prior rallies originated, the speed of its descent suggests residual weakness. Traders should monitor the 40 level for potential basing signals.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the January 31 high (198.22) and April 4 low (118.04) shows the recent rejection aligning precisely with the 78.6% retracement (181.06). The subsequent pullback has found initial support at the 61.8% level (167.59), creating a critical 167.59–181.06 decision zone. Conclusive breaks beyond either threshold would signal directional commitment, with 167.59 representing the primary bull/bear demarcation line.
Confluence is observed at 181.00–181.55 resistance, combining Fib resistance, the July 14 shooting star, and volume distribution. A bearish divergence exists between the July 14 price high and MACD’s lower high. The analysis suggests tactical bearishness after the Fibonacci rejection, though strategic bullishness persists while prices hold above the 167.59 Fib and 200-day SMA.