Ardor/Tether (ARDRUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined sharply in the second half, forming a bearish breakout below key support.
• High volume and expanding volatility point to increased bearish conviction.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening momentum, indicating a potential oversold condition.
• Bollinger Bands show a clear contraction before the drop, followed by a violent expansion.
• Downtrend confirmed by Fibonacci levels, with a 61.8% retest likely in the near term.

Ardor/Tether (ARDRUSDT) opened at $0.08541 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.08111 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached $0.08589, while the low touched $0.08089. Total volume amounted to 848,608.0 units, with notional turnover totaling $72,155.59 during the period. The pair experienced a sharp and sustained decline in the second half of the window.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a sharp bearish breakout forming from midday onwards, with price falling below the 0.0851–0.0852 support zone. This level previously held resistance during an earlier bullish attempt. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed around 14:30 ET, confirming the breakdown. Later, a long lower shadow appeared at the 0.0833–0.0834 zone, which acted as temporary support. A potential short-term base may now form near 0.0815, with Fibonacci 61.8% at ~0.0837 suggesting a possible rebound point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period SMAs are in a steep downward alignment, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price is well below both, with no signs of near-term retesting. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA currently sits at ~$0.0852, while the 200-period SMA hovers around $0.0855. Price remains significantly below both, indicating a deeper bearish structure and potential for further depreciation.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has turned strongly negative, with bearish divergence between the price and the MACD line, suggesting ongoing distribution. The RSI is currently in oversold territory (~28), indicating a potential short-term bounce may be in play. However, the RSI has not shown any strong rebound above 30, suggesting the bearish momentum may not be fully exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically following a contraction observed around 04:00–06:00 ET. The price has since remained near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with a recent break of the 0.0833–0.0835 channel. This suggests heightened bearish momentum and could precede a potential bounce from the band or a deeper extension of the move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon, particularly between 15:00–16:00 ET, as price dropped below 0.0833. This suggests liquidation activity from short-term traders or institutions. The increase in notional turnover aligned with the price drop, confirming the move rather than signaling divergence. However, the final few hours of the 24-hour window showed slightly lower volume, which could indicate a temporary pause or exhaustion in the bearish leg.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.08589–0.08089 swing, the 61.8% retracement is at ~$0.0837 and may act as a near-term level of interest. The 50% level at ~$0.0834 has already seen some rejection. On the daily chart, a retracement from the recent bear leg might find support at 0.0820–0.0825, but given the strong bearish momentum, a deeper test of 0.0810 or below cannot be ruled out.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a short bias upon a confirmed break below the 0.0851–0.0852 support zone, followed by a stop just above the 0.0855–0.0858 resistance cluster. A trailing stop is placed after the 0.0833–0.0835 support is reached, aiming to capture at least a 4.25% move in a 3–4-hour window. This strategy aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and divergence in the RSI and MACD observed in the data. The high volume and expanding Bollinger Bands further justify the high conviction in the short setup.