Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s Q4 2025 Call: North America Growth Outlook and European Aluminum Cost Signals Clash

Date of Call: Feb 26, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: North America: 24% increase to $807M in Q4; Europe: 1% decrease to $539M in Q4, or 6% on a constant currency basis.

Guidance:

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 expected in the range of $750M to $775M, driven by operational efficiencies, cost savings, and shipments growth in line with industry growth in Europe and Brazil.
• Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA expected in the range of $160M to $170M, ahead of the prior year quarter on a constant currency basis.
• Expect 2026 industry growth in North America of low single-digit percentage, with AMP volumes expected to decline slightly before returning to growth in 2027.
• In Europe, expect to grow volumes by around 3% in 2026, in line with industry growth.
• In Brazil, expect industry growth of low to mid-single-digit percentage and for AMP volumes to broadly track the market.

Business Commentary:

Strong Financial Performance in 2025:

• Ardagh Metal Packaging reported a year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%, significantly exceeding initial guidance.
• This growth was driven by over 3% shipment growth, favorable product mix, and tight cost control measures.

Regional Performance and Market Dynamics:

• In the Americas, revenue increased by 24% in Q4 due to higher input costs and shipments growth, with North America shipments up 6% for the full year.
• The strong performance in North America was attributed to a favorable customer and category portfolio mix, particularly in high-growth categories like energy drinks.

Challenges and Outlook in North America:

• For 2026, Ardagh expects a small volume decline in North America due to contract resets related to specific footprint situations.
• The company anticipates a return to growth in 2027, aligning with industry expectations, despite tight metal supply challenges causing additional costs.

European Market and Capacity Expansion:

• Europe's Q4 revenue decreased by 1%, but adjusted EBITDA increased by 14% due to higher input cost recovery and favorable volume mix.
• The company plans to add capacity in Spain and the U.K. to support customer growth, expecting around 3% volume growth in line with industry trends.

Liquidity and Financial Health:

• Ardagh ended the year with a robust liquidity position of $964 million and net leverage of 5.3x.
• The successful $1.3 billion green bond financing improved the capital structure, providing annual cash savings and lengthening debt maturities.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• CEO stated '2025 was another year of strong performance' and 'adjusted EBITDA growth of 10% which significantly exceeded our initial guidance.' He added 'the beverage can continues to outperform other soft drinks' and 'we are looking forward to a good performance again in 2026.'

Q&A:

• Question from Matthew Roberts (Raymond James & Associates): Can you talk about Q1 volume trends by region and any impacts from weather in the U.S.?
  Response: North America had a good start but January was impacted by severe weather; February/March tracking in line or better. Brazil started strong with industry growth of 2-3% in January. Europe is in line with forecast, with growth second-half weighted. No negative signs from higher aluminum costs.

• Question from Anojja Shah (UBS Investment Bank): What are you thinking around World Cup for Brazil this year? Also, what caused lower input cost recovery in North America?
  Response: World Cup effect is incorporated into low-to-mid single-digit growth guide for Brazil, potentially pushing towards mid, with impact expected in Q2. Lower input cost recovery in North America due to supply chain and operational challenges from metal disruptions, causing non-recovered freight and costs; expected to persist through first half of 2026.

• Question from Stefan Diaz (Morgan Stanley): Can you detail operational efficiencies and savings expected in 2026? Any strategy changes post Ardagh Group restructuring?
  Response: Savings are from normal operational improvements (lightweighting, reducing spoilage, lean activities) across all regions, offsetting North American volume weakness. No strategy or capital allocation changes post restructuring; AMP's strategy is working and delivering outperformance.

• Question from Bryan Burgmeier (Citigroup Inc.): How penetrated is the can in Europe vs. North America? Any further headwinds from aluminum conversion costs in Europe?
  Response: Can penetration is much lower in Europe (e.g., Germany at ~25% vs. U.S. 40-50%), indicating long run for growth. No material headwind expected from aluminum conversion costs; that was predominantly a 2025 issue.

• Question from Michael Roxland (Truist Securities, Inc.): What are the new filling locations in North America for 2027? How contracted are you for 2028?
  Response: New filling locations are in soft drinks, mostly with existing customers, aligned with portfolio. The company is heavily contracted through the next few years into the decade due to recent contractual events with major customers.

• Question from Arun Viswanathan (RBC Capital Markets): Do you have mix issues pushing you to lower end of industry growth? Could Midwest premium impact can demand?
  Response: No mix issues; North America volume reduction is due to contract resets from customer footprint changes, not mix. Mix is expected to be positive in 2026. Midwest premium is very high but not currently impacting demand; growth trends from innovation and sustainability are strong.

• Question from Gabe Hajde (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC): Did metal timing effects benefit Q4 EBITDA in Europe and carry over? What is the impact of supply disruptions?
  Response: Metal timing effects benefited Q4 EBITDA in Europe but were not the entire driver and are not expected to carry over materially into H1 2026. Supply chain disruptions caused ~$5M-$8M impact in Q4, expected to persist through first half of 2026.

Contradiction Point 1

Metal Supply Impact on North America Growth

Contradiction on whether metal supply issues pose a risk to 2026 North America volume growth.

Arun Viswanathan (RBC Capital Markets) - Arun Viswanathan (RBC Capital Markets)

2025Q4: There are no negative mix issues. The expected volume decline in North America is a transition year effect linked to specific customer footprint changes and contract resets, not mix. - Oliver Graham(CFO)

What factors, including customer mix issues, Midwest aluminum premiums, and new U.K./Spain capacity timelines, are impacting 2026 growth projections and can demand? - Michael Roxland (Truist Securities, Inc., Research Division)

2025Q3: No risk to 2026 North America growth from metal supply; new mill ramp-up, Novelis operational fixes, and multiple sourcing are expected to ensure stability. - Oliver Graham(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

European Aluminum Cost Headwinds

Contradiction on the expected trajectory of European aluminum conversion cost headwinds into 2026.

Bryan Burgmeier (Citigroup Inc.) - Bryan Burgmeier (Citigroup Inc.)

2025Q4: The company is through the major headwind period related to aluminum conversion costs and PPI pass-throughs, which were predominantly a 2025 issue. No material headwind is expected in 2026. - Stefan Schellinger(CFO)

What is the beverage can penetration rate in Europe compared to North America, and how might this impact future market share gains, considering potential headwinds from aluminum conversion costs or PPI pass-throughs in Europe? - Anthony Pettinari (Citigroup Inc. Exchange Research)

2025Q3: European aluminum cost headwinds will moderate significantly in 2026; no major savings expected, but competitive imports help manage costs. - Oliver Graham(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

North America Input Cost Recovery Challenges

Contradiction on the cause and persistence of lower input cost recovery in North America.

Anojja Shah (UBS Investment Bank) - Anojja Shah (UBS Investment Bank)

2025Q4: The lower recovery was due to supply chain and operational challenges caused by metal disruptions, leading to shorter production runs, re-routing of volume, and suboptimal freight lanes. These impacts are expected to persist through the first half of 2026. - Stefan Schellinger(CFO)

Okay, let's tackle this. The user wants me to rewrite the input into one concise earnings-call question. The input has two parts: one about the World Cup in Brazil 2026 and its impact, and another about the "lower input cost recovery" in North America mentioned in the press release.First, I need to check if both parts can be combined into a single question. The first part is about the World Cup's potential impact, which seems more strategic or market-related. The second part is a specific financial term from the press release. Since they are separate topics, combining them might make the question too broad. But maybe there's a way to link them if they're related to the same region or business area. However, Brazil 2026 is about the World Cup, which might affect South America, while North America is a different region. The user's rules say to output exactly one line, only the final question, ending with a question mark if possible. If the input isn't a question, is too vague, or lacks info, output as-is. The original input is two questions. But the user wants one. So perhaps I need to prioritize the part that's more relevant to earnings. The second part mentions "lower input cost recovery" in North America from the press release, which is a specific financial detail. The first part is about the World Cup's impact, which might be more strategic but not directly tied to earnings. Since the user is asking for an earnings-call question, the second part is more relevant. The first part might be too vague or not directly related to earnings. So maybe the best approach is to take the second question as the main one. But the user wants to combine if possible. Alternatively, maybe the two can be merged if they are both about potential impacts on earnings. For example, "What is the potential impact of the 2026 World Cup in Brazil on your business, and what drove the 'lower input cost recovery' in North America mentioned in the press release?" But that's two questions in one. However, the user wants exactly one. Alternatively, since the user says if it's not possible to form a clear question, output as-is. The original input is two questions. But the user wants one. If I can't merge them into a single coherent question without being redundant, then perhaps output as-is. But the original input is two separate questions. However, the user's instruction says if the input is not a question, too vague, etc., output as-is. The input is two questions. But the task is to rewrite into one. If it's not possible, then output as-is. But the example given in the problem shows that when there are two questions, maybe they can be merged. Let me check the rules again: "If the input is NOT a question, is too vague, or lacks enough information to form a clear earnings-call question, output the input EXACTLY as-is, with no modification."In this case, the input is two questions, but the user wants one. However, combining them into a single question might not be feasible without making it unclear. The two topics are different: one about a future event's impact and another about a cost recovery in a different region. So perhaps they can't be merged into one clear question. Therefore, according to the rules, if it's not possible to form a clear question, output as-is. But the original input is two questions. Wait, the user says to output exactly one line. The original input has two questions. But the user wants one. So maybe the correct approach is to take the second part as the main question since it's specific to earnings. The first part is more about a future event's impact, which might not be part of the earnings call. Therefore, the answer would be the second question: "What drove the 'lower input cost recovery' in North America mentioned in the press release?" But the user wants both parts combined if possible. But since they are separate, maybe the answer is the input as-is. However, the input is two questions. The user wants one. So perhaps the correct approach is to output the input as-is because it's two questions and can't be merged into one. Wait, but the user's instruction says if the input is NOT a question... but the input is two questions. So maybe it's considered multiple questions, which the user wants to condense into one. If that's not possible, output as-is. But the user's example might show that when there are two, you can combine them. Let me think again. The user's example input is two questions. The assistant needs to merge them into one. But how? The first is about the World Cup's impact, the second about cost recovery. Maybe the assistant can rephrase into two parts in one question. For example: "What is the potential impact of the 2026 World Cup in Brazil on your business, and - Joshua Spector (UBS Investment Bank, Research Division)

2025Q3: North American network issues (1-2 points of growth lost in Q3) were due to strong first-half growth causing size-specific shortages and were resolved heading into Q4. Focus is now on metal supply. - Oliver Graham(CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

European Growth Outlook and Timing

Q4 guidance shifts from strong, second-half weighted growth to a cautious, second-half slowdown.

What were the key factors driving the company's earnings performance this quarter? - Matthew Roberts (Raymond James & Associates, Inc.)

2025Q4: Europe is in line with forecast, with growth expected to be second-half weighted. - Oliver Graham(CEO)

Can you discuss Q1 guidance, volume trends by region, and any weather-related impacts in the U.S.? - Stefan Diaz (Morgan Stanley)

2025Q2: The company expects European can market growth to be around 3-4% for 2025, in line with its full-year 2025 guidance. - Oliver Graham(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

North American Growth and Volume Trends

Guidance shifts from expecting a slowdown to anticipating a transition year volume decline.

Arun Viswanathan (RBC Capital Markets) - Arun Viswanathan (RBC Capital Markets)

2025Q4: Positive mix effects are expected to offset this. The expected volume decline in North America is a transition year effect linked to specific customer footprint changes and contract resets, not mix. - Oliver Graham(CEO)

Did customer mix issues, the Midwest aluminum premium's impact on can demand, and the timeline/impact of new U.K. and Spain capacity contribute to reaching the lower end of industry growth for 2026? - Stefan Diaz (Morgan Stanley)

2025Q2: North American shipments grew 8% in Q2... The company expects a slowdown in H2 2025 compared to the very strong H1 but still anticipates healthy growth, maintaining full-year guidance of mid-single-digit shipment growth. - Oliver Graham(CEO)