Arcturus Therapeutics Soars 28.8% on Intraday Surge Amid Biotech Sector Turmoil

Summary
• Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) surges 28.8% to $14.67, hitting an intraday high of $15.50
• Turnover spikes to 1.48 million shares, with 5.97% of float traded
• Sector news highlights mRNA vaccine cancellations and biotech R&D shifts

Arcturus Therapeutics has ignited a dramatic intraday rally, surging 28.8% to $14.67 as the biotech sector grapples with regulatory upheaval. The stock’s meteoric rise follows a volatile session marked by a $3.45 jump from its $11.87 low to a $15.50 peak. With turnover reaching 1.48 million shares, the move underscores investor speculation amid sector-wide uncertainty over mRNA vaccine funding and leadership changes at HHS.

ARPA-H Data Chief's Departure Sparks Sector Volatility
The abrupt resignation of ARPA-H’s data chief, attributed to HHS’s termination of mRNA vaccine contracts, has triggered a flight to safety within the biotech sector. While companies like Sarepta and Vaxart face headwinds, Arcturus Therapeutics—whose mRNA platform aligns with ongoing R&D efforts—has attracted speculative buying. The stock’s sharp rebound from a $11.87 intraday low to $15.50 suggests short-term traders are capitalizing on the sector’s mixed signals, betting on ARCT’s potential as an alternative mRNA developer amid federal funding shifts.

Biotech Sector Splits as ARCT Defies Moderna’s Mild Gains
While Moderna (MRNA) edged up 0.22% to $215.40, Arcturus Therapeutics’ 28.8% surge highlights divergent investor sentiment. The biotech sector is polarized: companies tied to terminated mRNA contracts face sell-offs, while those with adaptable platforms like ARCT see inflows. ARCT’s rally contrasts with Sarepta’s struggles and Vaxart’s funding freeze, positioning it as a speculative play in a sector grappling with regulatory and policy risks.

Options Playbook: Leveraging ARCT’s Volatility with Strategic Contracts
• MACD: -0.456 (bearish divergence), RSI: 23.48 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: $10.74–$15.54 (current price near upper band)
• 200D MA: $14.71 (just above current price), Support/Resistance: $12.72–$13.74 (key near-term levels)

ARCT’s technicals suggest a volatile short-term outlook. The RSI at 23.48 indicates oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram (-0.253) signals bearish momentum. Traders should monitor the $14.71 200D MA as a critical support level. The stock’s 52W high of $25.88 remains a distant target, but near-term volatility offers tactical options plays.

Top Options Contracts:
• ARCT20250919C15 (Call, $15 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 88.52% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 8.76% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5546 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0290 (rapid time decay)
- Turnover: 6,064 (high liquidity)
- Gamma: 0.0917 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.80 per share (max(0, 15.40 - 15.00))
This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a bullish breakout above $15.00.

• ARCT20251219C12.5 (Call, $12.5 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 87.94% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 3.47% (low)
- Delta: 0.7344 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0120 (moderate time decay)
- Turnover: 33,858 (exceptional liquidity)
- Gamma: 0.0419 (moderate sensitivity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $2.90 per share (max(0, 15.40 - 12.50))
This deep-in-the-money call provides downside protection while capitalizing on ARCT’s upward trajectory. Aggressive bulls may consider ARCT20250919C15 into a break above $15.00, while conservative traders can use ARCT20251219C12.5 for a longer-term position.

Backtest Arcturus Therapeutics Stock Performance
The 3-day win rate for ARCT after an intraday percentage change greater than 29% is 49.12%, with an average return of 0.27% over that period. The 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 47.71%, with an average return of 0.32%. Over a 30-day period, the win rate remains at 49.12%, with an average return of 2.23%. The maximum return during the backtest was 3.84%, which occurred on day 50 after the intraday surge.

Act Now: ARCT’s Momentum Could Fuel Biotech Renaissance
Arcturus Therapeutics’ 28.8% surge reflects a pivotal moment in a sector reeling from regulatory shifts. While the stock’s technicals suggest a potential pullback to the $12.72–$13.74 support range, its 52W high of $25.88 remains a distant but achievable target if momentum holds. Investors should watch the 200D MA at $14.71 and the sector leader Moderna (MRNA), which rose 0.22% today. For now, ARCT20250919C15 and ARCT20251219C12.5 offer the best leverage to capitalize on this biotech inflection point. Watch for a $15.00 breakout or a regulatory reversal in mRNA funding.