Archer vs. Joby: Certification or Infrastructure - Which eVTOL Strategy Offers Better Long-Term Returns?

The eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) sector is at a pivotal inflection point in 2025, with two leading contenders-Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation-pursuing divergent strategies to capture the market projected by 2026. While Joby Aviation prioritizes FAA certification as a near-term catalyst for commercialization, Archer Aviation is doubling down on infrastructure development and intellectual property (IP) expansion. This analysis evaluates which approach-certification-first or infrastructure/IP-driven-offers superior risk-adjusted returns, leveraging financial data, regulatory timelines, and insider activity to assess scalability and defensibility.

Joby Aviation: Certification as a Defensible Moat

Joby Aviation's strategy hinges on securing FAA certification as a foundational milestone. As of October 2025, the company has completed 70% of Stage 4 powered-lift certification, positioning it to launch commercial operations in Dubai by 2026 and expand to U.S. cities like Los Angeles and New York City according to financial reports. This focus on regulatory compliance reduces execution risk, as certification is a non-negotiable prerequisite for revenue generation. Institutional investors, including Morgan Stanley, value Joby's certification progress at a $500–800 million premium, reflecting confidence in its methodical approach.

Financially, Joby's burn rate of $75–100 million per quarter is lower than Archer's $126 million, and its $2.2 billion in total funding provides operational runway through 2027. Strategic partnerships with Toyota and Delta Air Lines further de-risk commercialization by aligning with established infrastructure and operational expertise as reported by analysts. Additionally, Joby's insiders own 35.92% of the company, signaling alignment with long-term shareholders according to market data. This contrasts with Archer's insider selling in November 2025, where executives offloaded shares at $7.49 as disclosed by insiders, potentially indicating uncertainty about its aggressive infrastructure bets.

Archer Aviation: Infrastructure and IP as Scalable Leverage

Archer Aviation, under CEO Adam Goldstein, is pursuing a dual strategy of infrastructure acquisition and IP monetization. The company raised $650 million in November 2025, swelling its liquidity to $2.0 billion, to fund the acquisition of Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles and a manufacturing hub in Georgia. These moves aim to establish a first-mover advantage in urban air mobility (UAM) infrastructure, which is critical for scaling operations once certification is achieved. Archer also acquired Lilium's IP portfolio, expanding its patent arsenal and creating a high-margin business line by licensing electric powertrain technology to defense and aviation firms.

However, Archer's aggressive infrastructure bets come with execution risks. Its Q3 2025 net loss of $130 million-improved from $206 million in the prior quarter-highlights the capital intensity of its strategy. While the company expects FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) testing by year-end 2025, its certification timeline lags Joby's, with full approval anticipated in 2026. This delay could erode competitive positioning, as Joby's Dubai launch in 2026 may capture early-mover demand in a market with established regulatory agility as noted in market analysis.

Risk/Return Trade-Offs: Certification vs. Infrastructure

The key divergence lies in how each company addresses regulatory and operational risks. Joby's certification-first model reduces uncertainty by anchoring commercial timelines to a concrete regulatory milestone. Its conservative burn rate and extended runway through 2027 provide flexibility to navigate delays, while partnerships with Toyota and Delta mitigate infrastructure gaps according to financial analysis. Analysts have set a one-year price target below $14 for Joby, reflecting cautious optimism about its ability to monetize certification.

Archer's infrastructure-driven approach, while ambitious, faces higher execution risks. Its $126 million quarterly burn rate and insider selling suggest potential overreach in capital allocation as reported by market observers. However, its IP monetization strategy-licensing powertrain technology to defense and aviation firms-creates a diversified revenue stream that could offset delays in air taxi commercialization. This dual-income model may prove more resilient in the long term if eVTOL adoption accelerates, but it hinges on successful IP commercialization and timely certification.

Market Dynamics and Regulatory Tailwinds

Both companies benefit from favorable industry tailwinds. The FAA's Special Federal Aviation Regulation No. 120 and EASA's expanded certification frameworks are streamlining approvals, with Dubai and the UAE emerging as key testbeds as detailed in industry reports. North America's 39% share of the global eVTOL market in 2024 underscores the importance of U.S. regulatory progress according to market forecasts. However, Joby's alignment with these trends-through its Dubai launch and U.S. expansion plans-positions it to capitalize on near-term demand more effectively than Archer, whose infrastructure investments may take longer to yield returns.

Investment Thesis: Certification as the Lower-Risk Path

While both strategies have merit, Joby Aviation's certification-first approach offers a clearer path to near-term revenue and reduced regulatory risk. Its disciplined burn rate, insider alignment, and strategic partnerships create a defensible moat, whereas Archer's infrastructure bets, though scalable, are contingent on timely certification and successful IP monetization. For investors seeking capital preservation and predictable milestones, Joby's conservative timeline and institutional backing make it the more attractive option. Archer, conversely, appeals to risk-tolerant investors willing to bet on long-term infrastructure leverage and IP dominance.

In a sector where regulatory clarity and operational execution are paramount, Joby's methodical approach appears better positioned to navigate the uncertainties of 2025–2026. Immediate investment action in Joby Aviation aligns with its stronger balance sheet, clearer certification trajectory, and lower execution risk, making it the superior choice for long-term value creation.