Archer-Daniels-Midland Stock Performance and Analyst Outlook

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has underperformed the broader market over the past year but outperformed in 2025. The company reported better-than-expected Q2 results, with a 4.9% YoY drop in revenues and adjusted EPS of $0.93, surpassing estimates by 5.7%. ADM's cash flow generation has significantly improved, with operating cash flows totaling $4 billion in the first two quarters of 2025, up 238.7% YoY. Analysts expect a 15.6% YoY decline in adjusted EPS for FY25, but the company has a robust earnings surprise history. The stock has a "Hold" rating with one "Strong Buy" and eight "Holds" from 11 analysts.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, with revenues declining by 4.9% year-over-year (YoY) to US$21.2 billion, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.93, surpassing analyst estimates by 5.7% [2]. Despite the revenue drop, the company's cash flow generation has significantly improved, with operating cash flows totaling US$4 billion in the first two quarters of 2025, up 238.7% YoY.

Analysts expect a 15.6% YoY decline in adjusted EPS for fiscal year 2025 (FY25), but ADM has a robust earnings surprise history. The stock has a "Hold" rating with one "Strong Buy" and eight "Holds" from 11 analysts [2].

Segment-wise, revenues for Ag Services & Oilseeds fell 6.1% YoY to US$16.3 billion, while Carbohydrate Solutions' revenues decreased 3.5% YoY to US$2.79 billion. Nutrition's revenues rose 4.5% YoY to US$1.99 billion [4]. The company's gross profit decreased 1.9% YoY to US$1.37 billion, and adjusted segmental operating profit dropped 10.3% YoY to US$830 million [4].

ADM's stock has outperformed the broader market over the past year but underperformed in 2025. The company's shares are up 2.8% from a week ago, and the stock has gained 12.5% in the past three months compared to the industry's 12.2% growth [2].

References:
[1] https://investors.adm.com/news/news-details/2025/ADM-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Results/default.aspx
[2] https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/food-beverage-tobacco/nyse-adm/archer-daniels-midland/news/archer-daniels-midland-second-quarter-2025-earnings-misses-e
[3] https://seekingalpha.com/news/4481130-spectrum-brands-misses-top-line-estimates-reaffirms-fy25-free-cash-flow-outlook
[4] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/adm-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-segment-wise-declines-act-headwinds