Archer Daniels Midland Shares Plummet Amid Coca-Cola's Potential Cane Sugar Shift

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) shares fell 1% amid speculation that Coca-Cola may switch to cane sugar, potentially impacting corn syrup suppliers. Analysts predict a 4.38% downside to $51.16, but GuruFocus estimates significant upside potential based on GF Value metrics, with a projected value of $71.57 and 33.78% potential increase.

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) shares fell by approximately 1% in early trading on Thursday, July 2, 2025, following speculation that Coca-Cola (KO) may switch to using cane sugar in its eponymous soda in the United States. This potential shift could significantly impact the demand for high-fructose corn syrup, a key product for ADM [1].

The speculation emerged after President Donald Trump claimed on his Truth Social media site that he had spoken with "those in authority" at Coca-Cola and they agreed to use "REAL Cane Sugar" in the U.S. The president expressed his enthusiasm for the move, calling it "a very good move by them" [1].

Coca-Cola has since stated that they appreciate President Trump's enthusiasm for their brand but did not provide further details on any imminent changes to their product line. ADM and Ingredion (INGR), another major corn syrup supplier, have not yet responded to requests for comment on the matter [1].

Analysts have reacted to the news with varying opinions. While some predict a 4.38% downside to $51.16 for ADM shares, others point to significant upside potential. GuruFocus estimates that ADM shares could reach a projected value of $71.57, representing a 33.78% increase from current levels [2].

Institutional investors have also been active in ADM's stock. During the first quarter, Edgestream Partners L.P. acquired 58,647 shares of ADM, valued at approximately $2,816,000, while other large investors like S.A. Mason LLC, CoreFirst Bank & Trust, and ORG Partners LLC have also increased their stakes in the company [2].

Despite the recent drop, ADM's stock has shown resilience. The company reported earnings of $0.70 per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.69, and had a net margin of 1.63% and a return on equity of 8.71% [2]. Additionally, ADM's quarterly dividend of $0.51 represents a $2.04 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 3.77%, with a payout ratio of 72.86% [2].

Analyst ratings for ADM are mixed, with a majority rating the stock as a "Hold" and a consensus target price of $52.25. While Citigroup and Bank of America have downgraded their ratings on ADM shares, UBS Group has upgraded the stock to a "Buy" rating with a price objective of $60.00 [2].

In conclusion, while the speculation about Coca-Cola switching to cane sugar has had an immediate impact on ADM shares, the company's strong fundamentals and recent earnings report suggest that investors should keep an eye on the situation as it develops.

References:
[1] https://www.investopedia.com/adm-ingredion-stocks-slip-as-trump-says-coca-cola-will-switch-to-cane-sugar-in-the-us-11774039
[2] https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-edgestream-partners-lp-acquires-shares-of-58647-archer-daniels-midland-company-nyseadm-2025-07-17/