Archer-Daniels-Midland 2025 Q3 Earnings 511% Net Income Surge Amid Revenue Miss

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported fiscal 2025 Q3 earnings on November 4, 2025, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.92 (up 3.37% from estimates) and revenue of $20.37 billion (missed by $400 million). The company revised full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.25-$3.50 from ~$4.00. Despite revenue falling short, net income surged 511.1% year-over-year to $110 million.

Revenue

ADM’s total revenue rose 2.2% to $20.37 billion in Q3 2025. Ag Services and Oilseeds led with $15.61 billion in revenue, driven by $10.28 billion in Ag Services and $2.58 billion in Crushing. Refined Products and Other contributed $2.76 billion, while Carbohydrate Solutions generated $2.73 billion. Starches and Sweeteners accounted for $2 billion, and Nutrition added $1.92 billion (Human Nutrition: $1.07 billion, Animal Nutrition: $849 million). Vantage Corn Processors and Other Business segments contributed $729 million and $109 million, respectively.

Earnings/Net Income

Earnings surged with non-GAAP EPS climbing 450% to $0.22 in Q3 2025 from $0.04 in Q3 2024. Net income reached $110 million, a 511.1% increase from $18 million in the prior-year period. The company has maintained profitability for over 20 years in this quarter, reflecting strong operational resilience.

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Post-Earnings Price Action Review

The backtest of a strategy buying ADM on revenue beats and holding for 30 days shows mixed results due to limited data granularity. While 80% of historical revenue beats (2021-2022) generated positive returns averaging +11.4%, the Q3 2025 revenue miss—despite EPS beat—triggered an 8% pre-market decline. Stock price history lacks daily data, complicating precise 30-day return calculations. Broader market conditions, such as biofuel policy shifts, significantly impacted ADM’s performance in 2025. Investors should consider diversification and macroeconomic factors when evaluating this strategy. <visualization dataurl="https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/visual/visual_components/viz_rayf86g0.json"></visualization>

CEO Commentary

Chair and CEO Juan Luciano emphasized strong execution in Ag Services and Oilseeds, record volumes, and improved inventory management. He highlighted Carbohydrate Solutions’ ethanol margins and Nutrition’s sequential operating profit growth, including Flavors North America’s record revenue. Luciano acknowledged 2025 challenges like lower crush margins but expressed confidence in ADM’s resilience, citing its global asset network and skilled workforce. The outlook balances caution with optimism for 2026, contingent on biofuel policy clarity.

Guidance

ADM revised full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.25-$3.50 per share from ~$4.00, citing lower crush margins and biofuel policy uncertainty. The company anticipates 2026 demand driven by policy clarity and trade evolution but emphasized 2025’s conditional outlook due to regulatory and market risks. Forward-looking statements rely on anticipated benefits from policy and trade developments without quantitative GAAP reconciliation.

Additional News

ADM faces sector-specific risks, including biofuel policy delays and trade tensions, which have compressed crushing margins and reduced demand for soybean oil. J.P. Morgan downgraded ADM to Underweight, citing extended profit challenges. The company’s Altman Z-Score of 3.09 and Beneish M-Score of -2.91 indicate strong financial stability and low earnings manipulation risk. Institutional ownership remains high at 83.81%, reflecting confidence in ADM’s long-term positioning despite short-term headwinds.