Archer Aviation's FAA Certification Timeline: A Make-or-Break Milestone for eVTOL Commercialization

The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry stands at a pivotal crossroads. For companies like Archer Aviation, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification process is not merely a regulatory hurdle but a defining factor in determining whether their ambitious urban air mobility (UAM) vision becomes a commercial reality-or remains a speculative dream. As of late 2025, Archer's progress toward FAA type certification for its Midnight eVTOL aircraft has stagnated relative to peers, raising critical questions about its competitive positioning and investor confidence.

The FAA Certification Bottleneck

Archer Aviation has secured key regulatory milestones, including maintenance and air carrier certifications, but its type certification-the final regulatory gate to commercial operations-remains in the compliance phase. Final flight tests are expected to commence soon, yet analysts project full certification not before 2028. This timeline lags behind Joby Aviation, which is on track to complete its type certification by late 2026. The FAA's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, launched in September 2025, aims to accelerate certification by overseeing test flights, but Archer's participation has not yet translated into a meaningful speed bump.

The complexity of the certification process is compounded by the FAA's cautious approach to novel technologies. Unlike traditional aircraft, eVTOLs require validation of battery safety, noise standards, and autonomous flight systems-areas where regulatory frameworks are still evolving. Archer's inclusion in a five-country alliance led by the FAA, underscores the global stakes of harmonizing certification standards. However, such collaboration is more of a long-term enabler than an immediate solution.

Investor Sentiment and Strategic Differentiation

The eVTOL sector's valuation dynamics are deeply tied to certification timelines. Companies like Joby and Archer have raised billions to fund development, but their stock prices have swung wildly due to dilution and unmet expectations. For Archer, the path to commercialization hinges on its ability to convert regulatory progress into tangible revenue. As of Q3 2025, Archer has secured a $126 million acquisition of Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles to support its air taxi network and a partnership with Korean Air to deploy Midnight aircraft in government applications. These moves signal a pragmatic pivot toward near-term use cases, contrasting with its original focus on passenger UAM.

Financial metrics further highlight Archer's strategic advantages. The company has outperformed earnings expectations twice in the past four quarters, compared to Joby's lack of consistent outperformance. Archer's price-to-book ratio (significantly lower than Joby's 13.33X) and projected revenue growth-from $29 million in 2025 to $471 million by 2027 position it as a more compelling short-to-medium-term investment. However, Joby's $933 million cash reserves and partnerships, such as its alliance with NVIDIA for autonomous flight technology, underscore its resilience in a capital-intensive industry.

Commercialization Risks and Market Realities

Despite Archer's strategic maneuvers, the eVTOL sector faces systemic headwinds. Infrastructure gaps, such as the lack of vertiports and charging networks, remain unresolved. Moreover, the broader market has repriced expectations for passenger eVTOLs, with investors shifting focus to electric conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) aircraft and defense applications. Archer's pivot to government contracts and logistics may mitigate some risks, but it also narrows its commercial addressable market.

Regulatory delays exacerbate these challenges. A 2028 certification timeline for Archer would leave it years behind Joby, potentially ceding first-mover advantages in key markets. The FAA's rigorous process, while necessary for safety, creates a high barrier to entry, with only a handful of firms likely to survive the certification marathon. For Archer, the stakes are clear: certification is not just a technical milestone but a liquidity event that could validate its business model or trigger a reevaluation of its value proposition.

Conclusion: Certification as a Strategic Inflection Point

Archer Aviation's FAA certification timeline represents a make-or-break moment for its eVTOL ambitions. While the company has made strides in partnerships and financial performance, its lag in type certification relative to Joby raises concerns about its ability to capitalize on early commercial opportunities. The broader eVTOL sector's shift toward realistic applications and away from speculative UAM scenarios further underscores the need for regulatory clarity and operational pragmatism. For investors, Archer's progress-or lack thereof-will serve as a litmus test for the viability of high-risk, high-reward tech-driven aviation startups in an era of stringent regulation and evolving market demands.