Archer Aviation: Buy Before the Takeoff or Wait for Lift-Off?
15min read As archer aviation (ACHR) barrels toward its 2025 milestones, investors face a critical decision: should they buy now in anticipation of its breakthroughs, or wait until after key targets are met? The company’s roadmap includes FAA certification, commercial launches, and partnerships that could redefine its valuation. Let’s dissect the data to determine the optimal entry point.
The 2025 Milestones: A Roadmap to Dominance?
Archer’s “huge goal” revolves around achieving FAA Type Certification for its Midnight eVTOL aircraft by late 2025. This certification is non-negotiable for commercial operations, as it ensures compliance with U.S. aviation safety standards. With three-quarters of the process already completed, the company is on track to clear this hurdle—a milestone that could unlock regulatory approval for global deployments.
Beyond certification, Archer aims to launch air taxi services in the UAE by Q4 2025, partnering with Abu Dhabi Aviation (ADA) and leveraging its $301.8 million funding round to secure $1.1 billion in liquidity. This marks its first revenue stream, a critical test of its business model. Meanwhile, its collaboration with Palantir (PLTR) to develop AI-driven aviation software could give it a competitive edge in route planning and operational efficiency.
Financial Fortitude or Risk?
Archer’s financial health is a mixed bag. While its $834.5 million cash balance at year-end 2024 and recent funding provide a sturdy foundation, its Q4 2024 net loss of $198.1 million underscores the risks of being a pre-revenue company. Management projects 2025 adjusted EBITDA losses between $95 million and $110 million, which, while significant, align with its growth ambitions.
Investors should note that ACHR’s stock has historically been volatile, reflecting market skepticism about its execution risks. However, analysts like Canaccord have raised price targets to $13.50, citing the UAE partnership and Palantir deal as catalysts.
Risks and the “Wait-and-See” Case
Opting to wait until after milestones are achieved could mitigate risks. For instance:
- Certification Delays: Even a few months’ delay could pressure the stock.
- Manufacturing Challenges: Scaling production to two aircraft/month by 2025 requires flawless execution.
- Market Adoption: The UAE launch’s success hinges on customer demand and regulatory support.
Analysts and Institutions Are Betting Big
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest added 432,000 shares in early 2025, signaling confidence in Archer’s trajectory. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank’s analysis of the Archer Defense initiative suggests potential billions in military contracts, which could diversify revenue streams. The consensus “Moderate Buy” rating reflects cautious optimism, but investors should weigh these bets against execution uncertainty.
The Verdict: Buy Before, but With Caution
Buying before 2025 milestones makes sense for aggressive growth investors, as success in certification and the UAE launch could trigger a valuation surge. Key data points:
- A $1.1B liquidity cushion and $300M funding round provide runway for execution.
- The UAE deal alone could validate the air taxi model, a prerequisite for scaling globally.
- Palantir’s AI partnership positions Archer to dominate operational efficiency in an emerging sector.
However, conservative investors should wait until FAA certification is secured (Q4 2025) or the UAE service is operational. Until then, the stock remains a high-risk, high-reward play.
Final Analysis: The Prize Is Worth the Risk
Urban air mobility is projected to hit $1 trillion by 2040, per Morgan Stanley. Archer’s early mover advantage—paired with its UAE foothold and defense initiatives—positions it to capture a significant slice. While risks exist, the company’s milestones are achievable, and its financials are stronger than peers like Joby Aviation (JOBY).
Bottom Line: Buy ACHR now if you’re bullish on its execution, but be prepared for volatility. Wait until late 2025 if you prefer to avoid pre-milestone speculation. Either way, this is a stock to watch closely as the skies open for eVTOL.
