Is Archer Aviation a Buy Below $10? Assessing the eVTOL Revolution's Risks and Rewards

The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) sector remains one of the most speculative corners of the stock market, and Archer Aviation (ACHR) sits at its epicenter. With its stock trading below $10 as of November 26, 2025, the company's valuation has drawn both cautious optimism and skepticism. For investors willing to tolerate extreme volatility, the question is whether this price point represents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity-or a cautionary tale in the making.

Valuation Context: A Bargain or a Mirage?

Archer's stock closed at $7.49 on November 26, 2025, with a market capitalization of $5.5 billion according to PitchBook data. By December 3, the stock had climbed to $8.35, reflecting renewed interest in the eVTOL sector as reported by Yahoo Finance. While the $10 threshold remains a psychological benchmark, the company's valuation is still a fraction of its peak during the 2021 SPAC frenzy. This discount reflects both the sector's unproven commercial viability and Archer's ongoing regulatory hurdles. However, for speculative investors, the low price could mask a high-growth story if the company secures FAA certification and scales production.

Regulatory Hurdles: The FAA's Looming Shadow

Archer's path to commercialization hinges on obtaining FAA type and production certifications for its Midnight eVTOL aircraft. As of 2025, the company has secured maintenance and air carrier certificates but remains in the final airworthiness criteria phase for type certification according to financial reports. Analysts caution that this process could extend into 2028, delaying revenue-generating operations as reported by financial sources. The FAA's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, launched in September 2025, offers a potential lifeline by enabling test flights under direct supervision according to PCMag.

Yet, regulatory delays remain a critical risk, as competitors like Joby Aviation, which is in Stage 4 of the FAA's certification process, may outpace Archer as noted in aviation analysis.

Competitive Landscape: Playing Catch-Up in a Crowded Field

Archer faces stiff competition from established eVTOL players. Joby Aviation, for instance, has secured $1.2 billion in pre-orders and is ahead in regulatory timelines as reported in industry analysis. Meanwhile, companies like Vertical Aerospace and Wisk Aero are also advancing their own aircraft designs. Archer's strategic partnerships-such as its collaboration with Stellantis to retrofit a production facility for 650 aircraft annually by 2026-offer a counterbalance according to industry reports. However, the company's ability to differentiate itself in a saturated market will depend on its ability to execute on its Miami air taxi network and secure additional commercial contracts.

Industry Growth: A Market Poised for Takeoff

The eVTOL sector's long-term potential is undeniable. Forecasts predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62–85% from 2025 to 2035, driven by urban air mobility demand. Archer's $1 billion order pipeline from United Airlines and its plans to expand to cities like Miami underscore its alignment with this growth according to business news. If the company can achieve commercial operations by 2028, it may capture a significant share of a market projected to reach $100 billion by the late 2030s.

Strategic Partnerships: A Double-Edged Sword

Archer's partnerships with industry giants like Stellantis and United Airlines are both a strength and a vulnerability. The Stellantis agreement ensures production capacity, while United's orders provide a revenue runway. However, these partnerships also tie Archer's fate to the strategic priorities of larger entities. A shift in United's AAM strategy or Stellantis's production focus could disrupt Archer's plans.

Risk vs. Reward: The Speculative Equation

Investing in Archer below $10 is akin to betting on a startup with a $5.5 billion valuation. The risks are substantial: regulatory delays, intense competition, and unproven commercial demand could render the stock a speculative dud. Conversely, a successful FAA certification, coupled with rapid scaling and favorable market conditions, could propel the stock into triple digits. For risk-tolerant investors, the current price offers a low-cost entry point to a sector with transformative potential.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble

Archer Aviation's stock price below $10 reflects the sector's inherent uncertainties but also its untapped potential. While the company's regulatory and competitive challenges are formidable, its strategic partnerships and alignment with a booming industry make it a compelling speculative play. Investors must weigh the possibility of a 2028 commercial launch against the risk of obsolescence in a fast-moving market. For those with a high-risk appetite and a long-term horizon, Archer could be a buy-but only with the caveat that this is a high-stakes bet on the future of air mobility.