Arch Capital Rises 3.13% on Bullish Technical Signals as Support Holds at $87

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) rose 3.13% in the most recent session, closing at $90.59 after trading between $87.64 and $91.42 on elevated volume, suggesting a potential shift in near-term momentum. Below is the technical analysis based on the provided historical data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals bullish signals. The latest session formed a large bullish candle with a long lower wick (indicating rejection of lower prices) closing near the day's high, following a Hammer pattern on July 11th (open/close near $87.84, low $87.36). This suggests strong buying interest defending the $87 support zone. Key resistance is evident around $91.40-$92.00 (recent highs on July 9th and June 5th), while support is reinforced near $87.60-$88.00 (July 11th and 14th lows, and psychological level).
Moving Average Theory
A mixed trend picture emerges. The price recently reclaimed the 50-day moving average (estimating ~$89.30 based on calculation) and sits above both the 100-day (~$92.00) and the crucial 200-day moving average (approximated ~$91.00). While the long-term trend remains positive (price above 200-day MA), the shorter-term picture is consolidating as the 50-day MA dipped below the 100-day MA recently. A sustained break above the 100-day MA ($92.00) would signal strengthening bullish momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows potential bullish momentum returning. The MACD line may be converging towards a bullish crossover after diverging positively in late June/early July during the dip to $87s. Concurrently, the KDJ indicator recovered from oversold territory (K/D likely near 30 in early July) and its lines (K, D, J) are rising, currently situated around the 50-60 level. This confluence suggests weakening downward momentum and potential for further upside, though confirmation from MACD crossover is pending.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility compressed significantly in early July (bands narrowing) before expanding sharply in the latest session with the price move towards the upper band (~$91.40). Price closing near the upper band after a period of compression can suggest the start of a directional move, potentially targeting the band width expansion. Initial support now aligns with the middle band (~20-day SMA near $89.50) and lower band (~$87.50).
Volume-Price Relationship
The strong 3.13% advance on July 14th was supported by significantly higher volume (4.13M shares) compared to the preceding days, lending credence to the breakout. However, prior rallies (e.g., June 12th +2.82%, Apr 9th +5.86%) saw even higher volumes, and overall volume trends have been declining since peaks around March/April 2025. This divergence warrants caution as the sustainability of upward moves on lower volume highs needs monitoring.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Based on calculation using the 14-day period, the RSI is currently around 67, having rebounded sharply from near 40 on July 11th. It approaches the overbought threshold (70) but is not there yet. This indicates strengthening momentum but suggests the move may be extended in the very short term, potentially needing consolidation. A warning sign exists if RSI fails to breach 70 during price surges.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the prior major swing (High: ~$114.40 on Sept 27th, 2024; Low: ~$82.49 on Apr 4th, 2025) yields key levels. The 61.8% retracement level sits near $100.90. However, for the subsequent recovery from the $82.49 low:
The 50% retracement level is approximately $98.45.
The 61.8% level, representing a key upside target and potential resistance, lies near $100.90.
Currently, price faces resistance at the recent recovery high near $91.42. Overcoming the 50% level ($98.45) is crucial for a stronger bullish signal. The $90 area (a confluence of psychological level and the 200-day MA) offers critical short-term support.
Conclusion
Multiple technical indicators suggest Arch Capital Group (ACGL) is experiencing a resurgence in bullish momentum following its defense of the $87-$88 support zone. The breakout candlestick on high volume, recovery above key moving averages (particularly the 200-day and 50-day), and bullish divergences/convergence in MACD and KDJ are encouraging signs. Key resistance resides around $91.40-$92.00, coinciding with the 100-day MA and prior swing highs. A confirmed break above $92.00 could open the path towards the Fibonacci 50% retracement near $98.45. Notable caution stems from bearish volume divergence over the longer term and the RSI nearing overbought territory. The confluence of the 200-day MA and psychological support at $90/$90.50 provides a crucial near-term support level. Monitoring price action relative to these key levels ($90 support and $92 resistance), alongside volume confirmation and RSI behavior, will be vital for validating the sustainability of this upward move.