ArcelorMittal Extends Slide With 5.77% Drop Over Five Sessions As Bearish Signals Mount

Arcelormittal (MT) closed at $32.47 in the latest session, marking a 0.40% decline and extending its losing streak to five consecutive days with a cumulative 5.77% downturn amid moderate volume. This sets the context for a multifaceted technical evaluation.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal a pronounced bearish momentum, characterized by five consecutive bearish closes with expanding bodies between July 10–15, followed by shorter-bodied candles. This sequence signals intensifying selling pressure transitioning toward potential exhaustion near the $32.22 support zone (July 16 low). Resistance is firmly established at $33.14–$34.01 (July 15 high) and reinforced by the swing high of $34.54 (July 11). A sustained break below $32.22 may expose the psychological $32.00 threshold, while recovery above $33.14 could signify near-term stabilization.
Moving Average Theory
The current price trades below all key moving averages—50-day (~$33.30), 100-day (~$32.80), and 200-day (~$29.50)—reflecting bearish alignment across timeframes. The 50-day moving average crossed below the 100-day average in mid-July, confirming intermediate-term bearish momentum. This "death cross" confluence with the price positioned under the 200-day MA suggests persistent downward pressure, though the long-term uptrend remains structurally intact given the 200-day MA's upward slope from historic Q1 2025 lows.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) resides in negative territory with a widening histogram, signaling strengthening bearish momentum as the MACD line diverges further below its signal line. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator—with current readings near K=15, D=25, J=0—entered oversold territory following a sharp descent. While KDJ’s oversold status may precede a technical bounce, the MACD’s continued deterioration advises caution against premature reversal assumptions without confirmation from price or volume.
Bollinger Bands
Price volatility expanded notably during the early-July decline, with the bands widening as the price breached the lower band on July 15–16. Recent consolidation has narrowed the bands slightly, with the last close hovering near the middle band ($32.50). This band contraction alongside price stabilization near $32.40 suggests reduced selling intensity but does not yet indicate a directional bias. A close above $33.00 would challenge the upper band and signal bullish reversal potential.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged during the initial downswing (July 14–16), validating bearish conviction. However, the subsequent two sessions saw declining volume despite continued price erosion, suggesting diminishing sell-side momentum. This divergence implies weakening downward pressure, though sustainability requires confirmation via volume-supported upside moves. Notably, the July 11 peak at $34.54 occurred on moderate volume, questioning the rally’s legitimacy compared to high-volume sell-offs.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently reads 34, approaching oversold territory (<30) but not yet breaching it. This aligns with the short-term downtrend but diverges mildly from the KDJ’s deeper oversold reading, reflecting internal indicator disagreement. Historically, RSI has proven an unreliable standalone reversal signal during Arcelormittal’s trends, as evidenced by its failure to sustain above 70 during the July peak. Current levels warrant monitoring for bullish divergence but lack sufficient evidence for reversal anticipation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the rally from the April 22 trough ($27.77) to the July 11 peak ($34.54), key retracement supports emerge at $31.16 (38.2%) and $30.36 (50%). The recent low of $32.22 slightly undercuts the 23.6% level ($32.77), exposing the 38.2% support as a critical buffer. A breach below $32.22 would likely accelerate selling toward $31.16–$30.36, where buyers could emerge given confluence with the 100-day MA and June swing lows.
Confluence and Divergence Summary
Confluence occurs at the $32.22–$32.00 support zone, validated by Bollinger Band stabilization, volume deceleration, KDJ oversold conditions, and proximity to Fibonacci levels. This may attract short-term buyers, though bearish momentum retains dominance due to MA alignment and MACD deterioration. Primary divergence exists between momentum oscillators (KDJ oversold vs. RSI neutrality) and volume patterns (high-volume selling vs. low-volume consolidation), implying unresolved indecision. A breakdown below $32.00 would reinforce bearish continuity, while a recovery above $33.14—aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci level—may signal reversal potential, especially if confirmed by volume expansion.