Arbitrum/Bitcoin 24-Hour Market Overview

• Price formed a bearish reversal pattern during the early evening ET, followed by a slow recovery in the overnight hours.
• Volatility spiked sharply after 21:15 ET, with price dropping from 3.42e-06 to as low as 2.80e-06.
• Turnover increased dramatically during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• Price rebounded off support near 2.70e-06 and tested 2.90e-06 resistance twice.
• RSI briefly entered oversold territory but lacked follow-through buying.

Market Overview

Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) opened at 3.40e-06 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 3.42e-06 before falling to a low of 1.00e-06 on 2025-10-10 at 21:30 ET. It closed at 2.84e-06 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The pair saw a 24-hour volume of ~6,569,923.8 and a notional turnover of ~3.42 BTC (calculated from price x volume). The session showed a sharp bearish collapse followed by a gradual recovery, with strong volume during the selloff.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a key bearish reversal pattern during the 19:30–20:00 ET hour, marked by a large bearish candle that opened at 3.40e-06 and closed near 3.35e-06. This was followed by a bearish continuation into the 21:30 ET low of 1.00e-06. A potential support zone formed between 2.70e-06 and 2.75e-06, where the price paused and reversed on three occasions. A key resistance level appears near 2.90e-06, where multiple failed breakouts occurred. No strong bullish patterns emerged, but bearish continuation patterns dominated the session.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20 and 50 periods on 15-minute chart) crossed below the price during the selloff, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remained above the 200-period MA, suggesting a medium-term bearish bias. The price currently sits below all three moving averages (50, 100, 200), indicating a continued downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover with both lines trending lower, reinforcing the selloff. RSI entered oversold territory at 25-30 levels during the 21:30–22:30 ET window, but price failed to rebound above 2.85e-06, indicating weak follow-through. MACD divergence was observed as price attempted to rally in the final hours, but the MACD line failed to confirm the move. RSI remains in neutral to bearish territory for the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was highly contracted during the 20:00–21:15 ET window before expanding sharply during the selloff. The price moved outside the lower Bollinger Band during the 21:30 ET hour, reaching a low of 1.00e-06. The band width had widened by ~45%, indicating heightened volatility. Price has since consolidated above the lower band, suggesting short-term support at that level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the selloff, with the most intense trading occurring between 21:30–22:30 ET. Notional turnover reached ~1.7 BTC during the 21:30 ET 15-minute interval, confirming the bearish move. However, volume during the recovery phase has been relatively light, suggesting limited buying interest. A divergence between price and volume may indicate further consolidation or a possible bear trap.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent 15-minute swing from 3.42e-06 (19:30 ET) to 1.00e-06 (21:30 ET), the price found initial support at the 61.8% retracement level of ~2.75e-06 and later at the 50% level of ~2.80e-06. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a broader bull move appears near 2.65e-06, aligning with the current consolidation zone. A break below this level could target 2.50e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on ARBBTC when the 15-minute RSI falls below 30 and the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA, confirming a bearish divergence. A stop-loss is placed above the most recent swing high, and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current bear wave. Given today’s market behavior, the strategy would have entered short near 3.40e-06 and exited near 2.75e-06, capturing a ~19% move. The strategy appears to align well with today’s market dynamics, particularly the sharp breakdown and low RSI readings, making it a potential candidate for further testing in similar market conditions.