Arbitrum (ARB) Drops 64.53% in Six Months Amid Token Unlock and Bearish Pressure

Arbitrum (ARB) has recently seen a modest daily gain of +2.72%, currently priced at $0.3367. However, the token has experienced a significant decline over the past month, down 13.60%, and a dramatic 64.53% in the last six months, contributing to a YTD loss of 53.26%. From its all-time high of $2.40, ARB is now trading over 85% below peak value, reflecting substantial investor skepticism and persistent sell pressure across Layer 2 tokens.

Despite the weak price action, the Arbitrum ecosystem remains one of the most active in Ethereum scaling solutions. The project recently approved a 35 million ARB allocation toward tokenized U.S. Treasurys via partners like Franklin Templeton and WisdomTree, aiming to build DAO-controlled yield-generating infrastructure. This move is seen as a significant step in building DAO yield infrastructure and strong credibility within the ecosystem.

A major token unlock is scheduled for June 16, when 92.65 million ARB tokens (1.91% of total supply) will be released. This event has placed temporary bearish pressure on the token as markets anticipate increased short-term supply. The unlocking of these tokens is expected to create a temporary bearish supply shock, increasing short-term volatility before a possible demand response.

From a technical standpoint, ARB is showing early signs of reversal after possibly completing a five-wave bearish impulse. Analysts are tracking the formation of a zigzag corrective wave toward the upside. Patterns like falling wedges and symmetrical triangles suggest a coiling market that could produce a sharp bounce if $0.35–$0.38 is reclaimed. Short-term bullish targets lie in the $0.50–$0.69 range, though the macro trend remains bearish unless price decisively breaks above $1.00.

The RSI and MACD indicators are flattening near oversold levels, and trading volume is gradually increasing, which could signal accumulation. However, sustained upside will depend on ecosystem traction, broader L2 sentiment, and post-unlock volatility management. Arbitrum also continues advancing its roadmap, including integration with CCTP v2.0 and hosting various community events, such as a meetup in New York on June 25.