Arbe Robotics (ARBE) Surges 17.7% on Intraday Rally: Can This Momentum Sustain?

Summary
• Arbe Robotics (ARBE) surges 17.7% intraday, trading at $1.895 after opening at $2.1997
• Intraday high of $2.1997 and low of $1.75 highlight volatile session
• Recent news includes HiRain’s production-intent radar system and NVIDIA partnerships

Arbe Robotics (ARBE) is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally, surging 17.7% to $1.895 as of 5:53 PM. The stock opened at $2.1997, hit a high of $2.1997, and plunged to $1.75 before stabilizing. This volatility coincides with recent announcements about HiRain’s radar system and NVIDIA collaborations, signaling renewed investor interest in the autonomous vehicle sector.

Strategic Partnerships and Radar Innovation Drive ARBE's Intraday Surge
The sharp intraday move in ARBE is directly tied to recent developments in its radar technology and strategic partnerships. HiRain’s launch of the LRR615 radar system, based on Arbe’s chipset, underscores the company’s role in advancing production-ready 4D imaging radar. Additionally, Arbe’s collaboration with NVIDIA, highlighted in January 2025, has positioned it as a key player in AI-driven autonomy. These developments, coupled with ongoing media coverage of its Phoenix radar’s 4D imaging capabilities, have reignited investor optimism about Arbe’s long-term prospects in the autonomous vehicle ecosystem.

Automotive Parts Sector Mixed as ARBE Outperforms
The automotive parts sector (represented by BWA, -1.31% intraday) shows mixed momentum, with Arbe Robotics outperforming peers. While BorgWarner’s decline reflects broader sector caution, ARBE’s rally is driven by specific catalysts—namely, its radar partnerships and product advancements. This divergence highlights Arbe’s unique positioning in the high-growth autonomous driving niche, distinct from traditional automotive parts manufacturers.

Options and ETF Strategy for ARBE's Volatile Move: Key Plays Identified
• MACD: 0.0396 (bullish), RSI: 73.13 (overbought), 200D MA: $1.6929 (above price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $1.895, above upper band of $1.5563 (extreme volatility)

ARBE’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend amid overbought conditions. Key support/resistance levels at $1.2984–$1.3066 (30D) and $1.246–$1.3072 (200D) remain critical. The stock’s 17.7% intraday surge, coupled with RSI at 73.13, indicates potential for a pullback but also highlights the aggressive momentum.

Top Options Plays:
• ARBE20251017C2 (Call, $2 strike, Oct 17 expiry):
- IV: 174.64% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.540 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0078 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.454 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $112,792 (liquid)
- Leverage: 6.25% (high reward potential)
This contract offers significant leverage for a 5% upside scenario (targeting $1.99), with a projected payoff of $99 per contract. Its high gamma and IV make it ideal for short-term volatility.

• ARBE20251121C2 (Call, $2 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 162.97% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: 0.597 (higher sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0044 (slower decay)
- Gamma: 0.3098 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $22,834 (liquid)
- Leverage: 4.17% (balanced risk/reward)
This contract provides a longer runway for ARBE’s rally, with a 5% upside payoff of $99. Its lower theta suits investors expecting sustained momentum beyond October.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider ARBE20251017C2 for a high-leverage play on near-term volatility, while ARBE20251121C2 offers a balanced approach for a longer-term rally.

Backtest Arbe Robotics Stock Performance
The backtest has been completed. Key take-aways:• Repeated 18 %-plus intraday spikes in ARBE since 2022 have not translated into sustained gains. • A naïve “buy-at-close on the day of an ≥18 % surge, no explicit exit rule” approach would have produced a cumulative return of -67.6 %, an annualised return of -1.1 % and an 86.5 % maximum drawdown. • Risk-adjusted performance is poor (Sharpe ≈ -0.01), indicating that these large single-day jumps tended to occur in a broader down-trend rather than marking durable turning points.Assumptions (auto-completed):1. Back-test period: 2022-01-01 – 2025-09-22 (latest market data available). 2. Entry rule: buy at the day’s close whenever the intraday price change (close vs. previous close) is ≥ 18 %. 3. Exit rule: none specified; therefore positions remain open until the test ends or another surge signal replaces the position. 4. Price series used: daily close. 5. No risk-control overlays (stop-loss / take-profit / max-hold) applied.Please review the interactive report below for the full statistics and trade timeline:You can explore individual trades, equity curve, and additional metrics directly in the embedded module.

ARBE's Momentum Faces Crucial Test: Watch for $2.00 Hold and Sector Cues
ARBE’s 17.7% intraday surge hinges on its ability to hold above $2.00, a level that would validate the recent rally as a breakout. Technical indicators like RSI (73.13) and MACD (0.0396) suggest overbought conditions, but the stock’s high gamma and IV in options contracts indicate strong short-term demand. Investors should monitor the automotive parts sector (BWA down 1.31%) for broader cues, as ARBE’s outperformance may continue if its radar partnerships gain traction. For now, key levels at $2.00 and $1.75 will dictate the next move—aggressive bulls may target $2.00 as a critical threshold.