Arbe Robotics' Q3 2025: Contradictions Emerge in Design Wins, Revenue Projections, and Non-Automotive Market Growth

Date of Call: November 17, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $0.3M, compared to $0.1M in Q3 2024
• Gross Margin: Gross profit -$0.2M, compared to -$0.3M in Q3 2024 (improvement driven by revenue mix)
• Operating Margin: Operating loss -$11.5M, compared to -$12.4M in Q3 2024

Guidance:

• 2025 revenue expected $1M to $2M (reflecting timing shifts of certain NRE programs)
• Adjusted EBITDA expected loss of $29M to $35M
• Goal to secure 4 OEM design wins within the next 3 quarters
• Initial automotive production revenues expected to begin in 2027 with ramp in 2028
• Entering 2026 with over $52M in net cash to fund execution

Business Commentary:

* Strategic Progress with OEMs: - Arbe Robotics reported significant strategic progress with OEMs, with a target to secure 4 design wins with OEMs in the coming 3 quarters. - The company is well positioned to be selected as the key enabler for an eyes-off, hands-off automated driving program for a major European OEM and has secured a radar kit order from a top Japanese OEM. -

- Global economic shifts and OEM postponement of new model launches have impacted decision timelines, but not Arbe's market position.

• Financial Performance and Outlook:
• Revenue for Q3 2025 totaled $0.3 million, compared to $0.1 million in Q3 2024.
• Adjusted EBITDA loss for the third quarter of 2025 was $9.2 million, compared to a loss of $8.2 million in the third quarter of 2024.

• For 2025, revenues are expected to be in the range of $1 million to $2 million, with adjusted EBITDA expectations remaining unchanged at a loss of $29 million to $35 million.

• Non-Automotive Expansion:

• Arbe Robotics is seeing increasing global demand in the defense sector and has expanded into the maritime domain, with a radar system order for collision prevention on boats.
• The company is actively expanding its engagements with leading non-automotive clients, with a new defense client announced last quarter.

• This expansion is driven by the versatility and effectiveness of Arbe's radar technology in diverse applications.

• Awards and Recognitions:

• Arbe Robotics won two prestigious automotive technology industry awards: the Just Auto Excellence Award for leading technology in the perception systems category and the AutoTech Breakthrough Award for Sensor Technology Solution of the Year 2025.
• These awards recognize Arbe's technological advantages and contributions to the automotive industry in advancing ADAS and autonomous driving.
  

  Sentiment Analysis:

  Overall Tone: Positive

  • Management stated, “we believe we are well positioned to secure the key European OEM program... and additional 3 program wins within the next 3 quarters,” highlighted “steady progress,” recent industry awards, growing nonautomotive demand, and >$52M in net cash to support execution.

Q&A:

• Question from Sujeeva De Silva (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division): First question on the guidance for 4 design wins. I'm curious if that's 4 separate OEMs. And second of all, the specific guidance of the next 3 quarters, I'm curious what's driving the near-term visibility there?
  Response: Yes — four different OEMs; management expects decisions from at least five OEMs in the next three quarters and believes they will win at least four.

• Question from Sujeeva De Silva (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division): The customer programs, do you have a sense whether these model wins or opportunities are for certain premium models or across the board platforms or mainstream? Any color on the penetration you would expect if you secure these wins would be helpful.
  Response: Programs are expected to start in premium/high-end models and expand to non-premium over time, not entry-level initially.

• Question from Sujeeva De Silva (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division): Your full '25 revenue guidance of $1 million to $2 million implies a fairly wide 4Q range of outcomes. I'm wondering what might swing it to the high versus low end? Is that product shipments or license revenue coming in? Any color there would be helpful.
  Response: The swing is driven mainly by timing of NRE revenues: earlier customer decisions push NRE into Q4; delays push them into 2026.

• Question from George Gianarikas (Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division): Can you give more insights into how these conversations are going with the OEMs, the positive signs and reasons for pushouts in decision-making?
  Response: Dialogues are positive; prior delays were driven by tariff uncertainty causing ~2 quarters of postponements, but decisions are now progressing and Arbe benefits from a competitive price point for high-end radar.

• Question from George Gianarikas (Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division): How should we think about 2026 and 2027 modeling for revenue, OpEx and cash burn?
  Response: 2026 revenue expected to be driven mainly by nonautomotive (defense, smart cities) with some China automotive revenue possible but timing unclear; OpEx assumed stable in 2026 with headcount/OpEx increasing as automotive ramps into 2027.

Contradiction Point 1

Expected Design Wins and OEM Conversations

It pertains to the expectations and outlook for design wins with OEMs, which are crucial for revenue projections and market positioning.

What's driving the short-term visibility in the next three quarters' guidance? - Sujeeva De Silva(ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: We believe that we are well positioned and in the lead to be selected as the key enabler for an eyes-off, hands-off automated driving program for serial production retail vehicle by one of the major European OEMs in the near future and we hope to share further information as soon as we hear. - Jacob Marenko(CEO)

How has the number of expected design wins for next year changed, and what is the competitive landscape? - George Gianarikas(Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division)

2025Q2: We currently have 4 design wins that are expected to be realized in the coming year, all of them in the high-end imaging radar space. - Jacob Marenko(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Revenue and Cash Flow Projections

It involves differing expectations on when significant revenue from specific projects will be realized, impacting short-term financial performance and investor expectations.

What's driving the near-term visibility in the next three quarters' guidance? - Sujeeva De Silva(ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: With the customer programs that we're involved in today, we believe that we are well positioned and in the lead to be selected as the key enabler for an eyes-off, hands-off automated driving program for serial production retail vehicle by one of the major European OEMs in the near future and we hope to share further information as soon as we hear. - Jacob Marenko(CEO)

Which programs will drive $1 million-plus revenue quarters by year-end? - Suji Desilva(Roth Capital)

2024Q4: Two or three leading projects are in the final stages of maturing, including Tianyi (non-automotive), trucks in Europe, and HiRain with the Chinese car manufacturer. All of them are expected to start shipping chips as soon as full production is achieved. - Kobi Marenko(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Revenue Contribution from Non-Automotive Market

It involves differing expectations on the revenue contribution from non-automotive markets, which is critical for revenue diversification and growth.

How should we model revenue, OpEx, and cash burn ramps for 2026 and 2027 to understand the new model over the next couple of years? - George Gianarikas(Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division)

2025Q3: In 2026, most of our revenues will come from nonautomotive, which we see right now a great ramp-up from this business. As I mentioned, from almost every vertical that we are touching, we see orders and repeated orders from defense, from smart cities, all of that are bringing us more and more orders. - Jacob Marenko(CEO)

Will Blackwell's Q4 revenue be additive, and what is the expected gross margin exit rate? - Stacy Rasgon(Bernstein Research)

2024Q4: We believe that by the end of 2025, we will have nonautomotive revenues that look significant to where we'll be to offset some of the issues with automotive. - Karine Pinto-Flomenboim(CFO)