Aptos/Yen Market Overview for October 3, 2025

• APTJPY formed a bullish continuation pattern with strong volume and price pushing above key resistance.• Momentum appears to have shifted with RSI crossing into overbought territory and MACD showing positive divergence.• Volatility increased in the afternoon, with Bollinger Bands widening and price approaching the upper band.• Turnover surged during a major rally in the early evening, confirming the strength of the upward move.• A consolidation phase followed, suggesting the market is assessing short-term resistance ahead of potential breakout.

APTJPY opened at 736.5 at 12:00 ET on October 2, reached a high of 770.0, a low of 752.8, and closed at 755.8 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 21,239.06 and turnover amounted to approximately ¥15,935,191.58 over the 24-hour period. The pair showed a strong rally in the early evening before consolidation, suggesting a test of key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The APTJPY pair displayed a strong bullish bias through the formation of a series of higher highs and higher lows from around 740.0, with a notable bullish continuation pattern forming in the afternoon. Key resistance levels were observed at 760.0 and 768.0, while support levels were identified at 756.0 and 752.0. A long-bodied candle with a small upper shadow near the close of the day indicated strong buying pressure, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price remained above the 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating a bullish momentum. The 50-period moving average crossed above the 100-period on the daily chart, signaling a potential long-term shift in sentiment. The 200-period moving average appears to act as a strong support zone, with the pair trading above it for most of the day.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a consistent positive divergence, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought territory near 70, suggesting a potential pullback could be on the horizon. However, the fact that price continued to make higher highs while RSI did not showed a possible bullish continuation, albeit with increasing short-term risk.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early evening, with Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the sharp rally. Price traded near the upper band for most of the session, indicating a period of strong bullish momentum. A contraction is expected to follow this expansion, possibly leading to a consolidation phase or a reversal, depending on volume and order flow dynamics.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the key rally in the early evening, confirming the strength of the move. The total volume of 21,239.06 suggests strong participation from both retail and institutional players. Notional turnover spiked during the rally, aligning with price, which indicates strong conviction in the upward move. However, a divergence between price and volume could be a sign of weakening momentum in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings revealed key Fibonacci levels at 761.8% (761.2) and 38.2% (756.9), with the pair consolidating near the 38.2% level. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level at 756.3 aligns with the current consolidation area, suggesting a potential breakout either to the upside or a test of the 38.2% level. These levels may act as dynamic support or resistance depending on the next leg of price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed structure and technical alignment, a backtest hypothesis could be to enter long at a key support-turned-resistance level of 755.0 with a stop loss placed just below 752.0 and a target at 765.0. The MACD divergence and RSI overbought signal suggest a high-probability setup for a continuation of the bullish trend, assuming volume confirms the move. This setup could be tested using a 15-minute chart with strict risk management and position sizing relative to the account size.