Aptos/Yen Market Overview for 2025-10-31

• APTJPY opened at 493.0 and closed near 507.5, with a 24-hour high of 511.0 and a low of 480.0.
• Price saw a sharp V-shaped recovery from 480.0, forming a bullish reversal pattern.
• RSI turned from oversold territory into mid-range, suggesting improved momentum.
• Volatility expanded with a 3.6% range, but volume remained mixed across the session.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the upper band, indicating elevated short-term optimism.

APTJPY opened at 493.0 on 2025-10-30 12:00 ET and closed at 507.5 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-31, reaching a high of 511.0 and a low of 480.0. The pair saw a total volume of 43,063.87 units and a notional turnover of ¥21,191,271.31. Price moved in a volatile V shape, rebounding sharply from a low of 480.0 after an early dip.

Structure & Formations

Price action in the 15-minute chart revealed a sharp bearish breakdown followed by a robust reversal from the 480.0 level. A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 2025-10-31 01:15 and 01:30 ET, which signaled a potential shift in sentiment. The 493.0–494.4 range acted as a pivot zone, with price consolidating briefly before surging higher. Key support levels held at 480.0 and 491.9, while resistance emerged at 504.0 and 506.5, with a breakout above 507.0 suggesting further upside potential.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bullish configuration, with the 20SMA above the 50SMA for the latter half of the session. The daily chart showed a long-term bullish bias with the 50SMA above the 100SMA and 200SMA. This indicated that while short-term bullish momentum was building, the longer-term trend remained intact.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in positive territory during the recovery phase, with a widening histogram indicating growing buying pressure. RSI initially entered oversold territory at 26.3 before bouncing to 54.7 by the close, suggesting the rebound was gaining traction. A potential divergence in RSI during the early rebound hinted at temporary strength, though the subsequent move reinforced the bullish case.

Backtest Hypothesis

A practical backtesting strategy could focus on the 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern that occurred on 2025-10-31 01:15 ET. Using the daily approximation method, a buy signal would have been triggered at the next-day open (assuming 2025-10-31 12:00 ET as the start of the next “day”), and a sell signal at the next-day close. This approach allows for immediate execution using the existing system and provides a realistic assessment of the pattern’s viability. If the pattern holds in backtesting, it could suggest the engulfing candle serves as a reliable early signal for short-term reversals.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with the upper Bollinger Band reaching 517.0 and the lower band dropping to 469.0. Price spent the final hours near the upper band, suggesting heightened optimism. A contraction in the bands during the early morning (2025-10-31 01:00–02:00 ET) indicated a period of consolidation before the breakout, which may have acted as a precursor to the rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at several key points, particularly during the 2025-10-31 01:15–01:30 ET and 2025-10-31 15:30–16:00 ET periods. These spikes coincided with major price movements, offering confirmation of the reversal and subsequent breakout. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with higher notional values observed during the late morning and late afternoon. However, there were pockets of divergence in the early evening (2025-10-31 19:15–20:00 ET) where volume was relatively low despite continued price movement, suggesting potential short-term fragility.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 480.0–511.0 swing revealed key levels at 490.0 (38.2%), 497.0 (50%), and 504.0 (61.8%). The price hovered near the 50% level before breaking above the 61.8% level, suggesting a strong continuation phase. For the daily chart, the retracement of the 481.1–507.5 range indicated a potential target near 525.0 if the bullish trend continues.

Looking ahead, APTJPY appears poised to test the 507.0–511.0 range, with the 515.0 level a key target for further gains. A failure to hold above 504.0 could trigger a retest of the 491.9–480.0 support zone. Investors should monitor volume and RSI levels for signs of overextension or waning momentum, particularly as the pair nears critical psychological thresholds.