Aptos/Yen 24-Hour Market Overview (2025-10-05)

• APTJPY surged past 816.4 amid strong volume and a bullish breakout pattern late in the day.
• Momentum accelerated with MACD and RSI turning sharply higher, signaling strong buying pressure.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 23:15 ET, with a sharp selloff dragging price back into Bollinger Band mid-range.
• Volume spiked during the late ET session, with turnover diverging from price action in the final hours.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential support near 771.9 and resistance near 825.0 in the near term.

APTJPY opened at 757.7 (12:00 ET − 1) and surged as high as 833.5 before retreating to 816.4 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 757.2 and 833.5, with a total volume of 12,366.7 and turnover of 9,939,714.1 JPY. A strong 15-minute bullish breakout formed around 19:15 ET, followed by a sharp correction after 23:15 ET.

Structure & Formations

APTJPY displayed a textbook bullish breakout from a consolidation range starting at 19:15 ET, with a 15-minute candle forming a strong bullish engulfing pattern. However, the move was short-lived, as the price reversed sharply from a key overhead resistance at 833.5. A bearish divergence emerged in the final 3 hours, with the price failing to hold above 816.4 and retreating toward the mid-range of the Bollinger Bands. Key support levels were identified at 771.9 (Fib 61.8%) and 766.6 (daily low), with resistance reappearing at 825.0 and 833.5.

Moving Averages & Volatility

The 15-minute chart saw the price break above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bullish bias. However, the 50-period MA began to flatten as the price corrected. Volatility expanded significantly after 23:15 ET, with the upper Bollinger Band reaching 833.5 and the lower band falling to 766.6. Price sat near the middle band at the 24-hour close, suggesting uncertainty about the sustainability of the recent move.

Momentum & Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The RSI surged to near 80 during the bullish phase, indicating overbought conditions. This was followed by a sharp drop to below 50 during the late-night selloff, suggesting a possible short-term bearish bias. The MACD crossed above zero at 19:15 ET, confirming the bullish breakout, but diverged sharply with the price in the final 3 hours, indicating weakening momentum. A bearish crossover of the MACD line is now likely as price moves lower.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked dramatically at 23:15 ET with a 2172.27 JPY turnover candle, which marked the beginning of a sharp price decline. Notably, the volume dropped to zero in the early morning hours, despite continued price movement, indicating a divergence. This suggests a lack of conviction among buyers and could signal a potential reversal or consolidation in the coming 24 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings from 766.6 to 833.5 indicate key Fibonacci levels at 771.9 (61.8%), 800.0 (50%), and 825.0 (38.2%). Price has now settled near the 50% retracement level, with potential support below at 771.9 and resistance above at 825.0. Daily-level retracement from the recent high at 833.5 to the low at 766.6 suggests the same 61.8% and 50% levels as critical turning points in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The above technical signals suggest a possible strategy based on Fibonacci retracements and RSI divergence. A buy signal could be triggered on a bullish breakout above 825.0, confirmed by a closing candle above the 50-period MA and an RSI above 55. A sell signal may be generated on a break below 771.9, especially if RSI dips below 45. These signals could be validated using a backtest that applies these rules on a historical 15-minute dataset. Incorporating volume and MACD divergence would further refine entry and exit timing, potentially increasing the accuracy of the strategy.