Aptos/Bitcoin Market Overview

• APTBTC closed near 12:00 ET at 3.052e-05, down 0.6% from the 12:00 ET - 1 open of 3.066e-05.
• Price reached a 24-hour high of 3.116e-05 and a low of 2.934e-05, showing strong intraday volatility.
• Volume surged after 11:30 ET on 2025-10-22, reaching a peak of 6,649.76 BTC-equivalent, coinciding with a price rally.
• A bearish divergence appears between volume and price during the afternoon sell-off, suggesting potential bearish momentum.
• Key support appears at 2.973e-05 (tested multiple times), and resistance at 3.099e-05, where price reversed on heavy volume.

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened at 3.066e-05 on 12:00 ET - 1 and closed at 3.052e-05 by 12:00 ET. During the 24-hour window, the pair traded as high as 3.116e-05 and as low as 2.934e-05, showing a volatile trading session. Total volume traded amounted to 38,327.9 BTC-equivalent, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,180,000, assuming a BTC price of $30,800.

Structure & Formations

Price on APTBTC has tested the 2.973e-05 level multiple times, most recently during the afternoon sell-off, suggesting it could be a key support zone. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 15:00 ET as the price fell from 3.078e-05 to 3.055e-05, indicating bearish sentiment. A bullish harami pattern was briefly visible during the morning rebound, but failed to hold above 3.095e-05. The 3.099e-05 level appears to be a strong resistance, as price attempted a breakout after 11:30 ET but reversed sharply.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key support levels during the afternoon, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA currently sits at 3.048e-05, suggesting short-term momentum is shifting lower. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA is near 2.99e-05, with price trading slightly above it, indicating that the longer-term trend remains neutral to slightly bullish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned negative in recent hours, with the histogram showing bearish momentum. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory (around 28) following the intraday sell-off, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could be near. However, the RSI divergence from price during the afternoon sell-off raises caution that the rally may lack conviction. A bearish crossover in the MACD is likely to confirm the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been bouncing off the lower Bollinger Band in the late afternoon, indicating a period of low volatility or consolidation. The bands have widened in the morning as price surged past 3.099e-05, reflecting increased volatility. Currently, the price is positioned near the lower band, suggesting it may test the 2.973e-05 support before showing signs of consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

The heaviest trading volume occurred between 11:30 ET and 12:00 ET, with over 6,649.76 BTC-equivalent traded as price moved from 3.084e-05 to 3.095e-05. Despite the strong volume, price failed to hold above 3.099e-05, signaling a bearish divergence. Afternoon trading showed a noticeable drop in volume despite continued price declines, suggesting that the bearish move may be losing steam.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent 15-minute move from 2.934e-05 to 3.116e-05, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at 3.014e-05—currently acting as a psychological pivot. The 38.2% level is near 3.044e-05, where price found temporary resistance in the early afternoon. For the daily swing, the 61.8% retracement is at 2.998e-05, aligning with a recent area of consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration relies on MACD signal crossovers to generate trading signals. However, the MACD series for APTBTC could not be retrieved from the default data source, likely due to symbol formatting or data availability issues. To proceed, we must address this missing data element. Options include trying alternative symbols (e.g., APT-BTC, APT/BTC), uploading a custom OHLCV file, or switching to a more liquid pair such as APT/USDT. Once the MACD data is resolved, the strategy will automatically detect Golden and Death Crosses from January 1, 2022, onward, and run a backtest based on those signals. A comprehensive performance report—including win rate, drawdown, and risk-adjusted returns—will then be generated with visualizations for clarity.