Aptos/Bitcoin Market Overview – 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price opened at 3.026e-05 and closed at 3.047e-05 after a 24-hour range of 3.024e-05 to 3.128e-05.
• RSI indicates overbought conditions at 61.8% level, but price action shows consolidation in the last 12 hours.
• Volume spiked to 6,521.59 at 00:30 ET, but failed to confirm a breakout above 3.092e-05.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price sitting near the upper band in the morning before drifting lower.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 22:30 ET, signaling potential reversal toward 3.038e-05.

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened at 3.026e-05 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 3.047e-05 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. The pair traded within a 24-hour range of 3.024e-05 to 3.128e-05, with total volume of 56,353.82 and notional turnover of approximately 1.73 BTC (based on closing prices). Price action showed a late-night rally followed by a consolidation phase.

Key support levels are forming around 3.05e-05 and 3.038e-05, with resistance at 3.092e-05. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed multiple times, suggesting a volatile short-term trend. The 50-period MA currently sits slightly above the 20-period MA, but both are below the 100-period and 200-period MAs from daily data, hinting at a possible retest of 3.027e-05 in the near term.

The RSI reached overbought territory (above 60) during the morning session but retreated into neutral to oversold territory in the late afternoon, aligning with the bearish drift in price. Bollinger Bands are widening in the morning, indicating rising volatility, but the bands have since narrowed, reflecting a period of consolidation. Price is currently near the mid-band, suggesting a possible continuation of the range-bound trend.

Volume spiked sharply at 00:30 ET when price reached 3.092e-05, but failed to push above the 3.092e-05 resistance. This divergence between volume and price may signal a potential reversal. Similarly, a bearish engulfing pattern formed at 22:30 ET, suggesting bearish momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels from the high of 3.128e-05 to the low of 3.024e-05 indicate potential support at 3.05e-05 (61.8%) and 3.08e-05 (38.2%).

Looking ahead, price could test the 3.038e-05 support level in the next 24 hours. A breakdown below that would signal a stronger bearish trend, but buyers at the 3.05e-05 level might stabilize the pair. Investors should remain cautious about volume divergence and watch for confirmation of a new bearish trend with a close below 3.038e-05.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential event-based backtest could focus on price behavior around the 3.027e-05 support level. If this level is broken below, a short position could be triggered, with a stop-loss placed above the 3.05e-05 Fibonacci retracement level. A cover order would be triggered on a close back above 3.05e-05 or after a fixed holding period (e.g., 72 hours). If only one break below 3.027e-05 is recorded, extending the look-back period to the full listing history of APTBTC may yield more data for meaningful statistical analysis. Alternatively, testing a slightly higher support level like 3.05e-05 or 3.1e-05 could provide more event opportunities for the backtest engine.