Aptos (APT) Enters Oversold Territory, Triggers Potential Bounce Scenarios

• Aptos (APT) is currently trading at $1.00–$1.06, with its RSI hovering near 27–29, indicating extreme oversold conditions that historically suggest a potential price bounce according to technical analysis.
• Multiple technical analyses point toward a potential price recovery to $1.10–$1.35 within 4–6 weeks, assuming key support levels at $1.00 or $1.01 hold as market data shows.
• APT is trading significantly below its 20-day and 200-day moving averages, amplifying the potential for a technical reversal if the RSI breaks above 50 and the MACD shows positive divergence based on technical indicators.

Aptos has faced significant selling pressure in early 2026, with its price dropping from above $1.30 to as low as $1.00 by February 10 according to price data. Analysts note that the RSI of 27 is a historically strong indicator of an impending bounce, especially when combined with a stabilizing MACD histogram and on-chain data showing reduced bearish momentum as technical analysis indicates.

Despite the bearish trend, key technical indicators suggest that a successful retest of the $1.05–$1.10 level could trigger a relief rally toward $1.18 and eventually $1.35 according to market forecasts. This would represent a 27–35% upside from current levels. Traders are advised to monitor the $1.00 support level closely, as a breakdown could expose further downside to $0.95 or even the $0.85–$0.90 zone as price data shows.

Upcoming market events, including a $12.73 million APT token unlock scheduled for February 10, introduce additional uncertainty according to market reports. The unlock, representing 0.69% of the circulating supply, could create new sell pressure unless strong buying interest offsets it. The impact on price will depend on liquidity conditions and trader sentiment around the unlock period as analysis indicates.

What is the potential price target for APT in the next 4–6 weeks?

Analysts project a range of short- to medium-term price targets for APT, from $1.10 to $1.35, based on RSI and MACD indicators according to technical analysis. APT's current position near the lower Bollinger Band also supports a case for mean reversion toward the 20-day moving average at $1.32 as market data shows. In a bullish scenario, a retest above $1.35 could signal a reversal of the broader downtrend.

A bearish scenario, however, would require a breakdown below $0.98 or $1.01, exposing support levels as low as $0.95 according to technical analysis. Traders are advised to implement conservative risk management strategies, such as stop-loss placement and dollar-cost averaging, given the high volatility and uncertainty around both price and supply dynamics.

How does the current market environment affect APT's price outlook?

The market environment is influenced by broader trends in institutional adoption of blockchain and tokenized assets. For instance, Aptos Labs has partnered with BCG and Hang Seng Bank to explore institutional-grade applications in Hong Kong, which could provide a long-term catalyst for APT demand as reported.

However, short-term price dynamics are more directly impacted by technical indicators and on-chain activity. The RSI reaching oversold levels and the stabilization of MACD momentum suggest a potential relief rally is in play according to market data. On the other hand, the token unlock event on February 10 introduces additional downward pressure unless liquidity conditions absorb the increased supply.

What are the key risks for APT holders and traders in the near term?

The primary risk is a breakdown below key support levels, such as $1.00 or $1.01, which would invalidate the bullish case and increase the likelihood of a further decline toward $0.95 or even the $0.85–$0.90 range as technical analysis indicates.

Additionally, the $12.73 million APT unlock could amplify bearish pressure if liquidity is insufficient to offset the increased supply according to market reports. Traders should also monitor the RSI and MACD divergence for early signs of momentum shifts. A sustained move above $1.38 could trigger a broader trend reversal, but this outcome is contingent on strong volume and institutional demand.