APTJPY Market Overview: Sharp Drop and Oversold Momentum Signal Key Support Test

• APTJPY declined sharply over 24 hours, forming a bearish trend with strong downward momentum.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early, followed by a rapid drop below 30, indicating oversold territory.
• Volatility surged during the decline, with large 15-minute range expansions after consolidation.
• A key support level was tested near 612.1–614.2, with a partial bounce but no clear reversal confirmation.
• Bollinger Bands showed significant contraction before the selloff, followed by a sharp expansion.

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at 642.1 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 612.8 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 644.3 and a low of 605.0. The pair recorded a total volume of 10,968.2 and a notional turnover of ¥7,036,141.2 over the 24-hour period. Price action showed a broad bearish bias, with a sharp decline from midday on the 24th.

The 15-minute chart reveals a strong bearish bias, with a series of lower highs and lower lows forming a descending trend. Key support levels were identified at 612.1–614.2 and 616.5–618.3, with a potential resistance zone forming around 619.8–620.5. Candlestick patterns included a bearish engulfing pattern around 2025-09-24 23:45 and a long lower shadow at 2025-09-25 00:15, indicating rejection of lower prices in the early session. A doji at 2025-09-25 00:15 also highlighted indecision after the sharp decline.

A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart confirmed the bearish bias, with the 50-period line below the 20-period line. The 200-period daily MA (calculated separately) would have served as a long-term bearish reference, assuming a similar decline on the daily timeframe. Momentum as measured by the MACD showed a large negative histogram and a bearish crossover, while RSI dropped below 30, signaling oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands displayed a sharp expansion during the decline, indicating heightened volatility, with prices trading near the lower band in the final hours.

Volume spiked during the decline, particularly between 2025-09-24 23:30 and 00:30, reinforcing the bearish move. Turnover aligned closely with volume, with no divergence detected. Notably, the price action at key support levels did not elicit a strong bounce, suggesting further downside may be expected if the support breaks. Fibonacci retracement levels from the key 644.3 high to 605.0 low indicate critical levels at 616.2 (38.2%) and 626.4 (61.8%), both of which could act as pivotal reversal or continuation points.

The Backtest Hypothesis would focus on a momentum-based short strategy triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern, confirmed by RSI below 30, and a large negative MACD histogram. The strategy would aim to enter short positions at key Fibonacci levels (616.2 and 612.1) with stop-loss above the next resistance (619.8) and a target at the 61.8% level (626.4). Given the recent volatility and lack of bullish confirmation at support, this approach may offer favorable risk/reward, though it remains subject to sudden reversals or news events.