APTJPY Market Overview: APTJY Falls 7.4% as Volatility Peaks and Momentum Shifts Bearish

• APTJPY opened at 684.0, surged to a 24-hour high of 690.3, and closed at 627.8, down -7.4% over 24 hours.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 690.3, followed by a sharp decline and high volatility.
• The 20-period SMA turned bearish, with price below key support at 652.2.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 20, suggesting potential short-term bounce.
• Volume surged during the 06:15 ET candle, confirming the sharp bearish move.

Market Action and Structure

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at 684.0 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 627.8 by 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 690.3 before a sharp sell-off that took it down to 626.8, the lowest level in the 24-hour window. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the range, signaling a strong reversal. Price then fell through key support levels, including 665.3 and 652.2, with bearish momentum intensifying after the 06:15 ET candle.

A doji formed near 652.2, indicating indecision, while a bullish hammer at 630.0 suggests possible short-term stabilizing behavior. The price appears to be consolidating near 628.0, with no clear breakout above 632.0 in the final hours of the 24-hour period.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

Resistance levels to watch include 635.0, 638.2, and 642.0, with 665.3 acting as a critical short-term psychological barrier. On the downside, 628.0 has emerged as a temporary support, with further tests of 626.8 and 620.0 likely if the downward momentum continues.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both turned bearish, with price trading well below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is above 660.0, reinforcing the bearish bias for the short to medium term.

The RSI indicator fell below 20, entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could occur. However, MACD remained bearish with a negative histogram, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp sell-off, especially between 06:15 and 08:15 ET, as the pair fell from 652.2 to 632.7. Price has been hovering near the lower band, indicating a high volatility environment. A reversal above the upper band would suggest a strong bullish signal, but the current setup remains bearish.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the 06:15 ET candle (11,257.04) as the pair moved from 652.2 to 638.6, confirming the bearish breakout. Notional turnover remained elevated during the decline but has dropped off as the price has settled near 628.0, suggesting possible exhaustion among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels based on the 626.8–690.3 swing include 674.9 (23.6%), 660.5 (38.2%), and 646.1 (50%), with the 631.7 (61.8%) level providing potential short-term support. The 652.2–626.8 retracement suggests 637.0 as the next critical level to watch for a potential reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the sharp drop and oversold RSI, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-term countertrend trade. A long entry could be triggered on a close above the 632.0 level, with a stop-loss placed below 628.0. A profit target would be set at 635.0 (38.2% retracement level) or 638.2 (50% retracement level), depending on the risk-reward ratio.

This setup would aim to capture a short-term bounce in a bearish environment, leveraging Fibonacci and RSI signals to identify a favorable risk entry. The strategy would be best used with a 30-minute to 1-hour timeframe and would require monitoring for divergences or unexpected strength in the 628.0–632.0 range.