April Inflation Rises 0.2% Month Over Month, 2.3% Year Over Year
In April, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% from the previous month and 2.3% from the same period last year, marking the lowest annual inflation rate in over four years. The core CPI, which excludes food and fuel prices, also rose by 0.2% in April, resulting in a 2.8% annual increase.
The relatively subdued inflation figures for April have raised questions about the impact of new tariff policies. Historically, there has been a lag between the implementation of tariffs and the subsequent rise in inflation. For instance, in May 2019, tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports were increased from 10% to 25%. Initially, the increase was scheduled for January 2019 but was delayed by five months.
Following the May 2019 tariff increase, the headline CPI report for that month showed a 0.1% increase month over month, compared to a 0.3% increase the previous month. However, the core CPI for June 2019 saw a 0.3% increase, the largest monthly rise since January 2018. Used car and truck prices, which can serve as a proxy for tariff impact, increased by 1.6% in June 2019.
Businesses have been stocking up on inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs, which could delay any price increases passed on to consumers. The duration of this delay is uncertain. Additionally, a decrease in consumer confidence and retail spending due to tariffs likely contributed to the lower prices observed in April.
Markets are currently anticipating that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at its next meeting in June. This expectation suggests that traders are bracing for further tariff-related developments, often referred to as the "other tariff shoe" dropping.
