Applovin Surges 7.54% To $390.70 As Technicals Flash Bullish Signals

Applovin closed at $390.70 on 2025-07-31, marking a 7.54% single-day gain and an 8.04% two-day rally. This strong momentum near the psychological $400 level warrants multi-indicator examination.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a bullish reversal pattern emerging near critical support. The July 22nd session formed a hammer candle (low: $343, close: $350) after a 4.42% decline, signaling exhaustion. This was confirmed by subsequent higher lows. Resistance is evident near $398-400, aligning with June 6th's swing high of $426.52 and July 31st's intraday peak of $397.92. A decisive break above $400 could trigger further upside, while support appears at the 50-day moving average (currently near $365) and the July 30th low of $358.55.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration signals an established uptrend. With the latest close at $390.70, the price maintains position above the 50-day SMA (~$366), 100-day SMA (~$346), and 200-day SMA (~$280). Crucially, the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA in Q1 2025 (golden cross), confirming a long-term bullish bias. The sustained price premium over all key averages suggests persistent buying pressure, though the 50-day SMA's relatively flat slope may indicate near-term consolidation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows strengthening bullish momentum, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on July 24th after a period of compression. Simultaneously, the KDJ oscillator exited oversold territory (K-line: 24 on July 22) and crossed above 50 by month-end. While not yet overbought (K: 68, D: 62, J: 80 on July 31), the KDJ’s sharp ascent warrants monitoring for potential near-term exhaustion. Both momentum indicators now align with the price recovery.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident after a mid-July squeeze. The July 22nd close below the lower band ($349 vs. lower band: $355) marked an oversold extreme, followed by a sharp rebound toward the upper band (~$395). The 20-day band width expanded by 18% during this recovery phase. Current proximity to the upper band ($397) suggests near-term resistance, though the absence of reversal candles tempers bearish implications.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns validate the recent advance. The July 31st surge occurred on 7.91M shares – the highest volume since June 30th – confirming institutional participation. Notably, up days in late July consistently saw higher volume than down days, indicating accumulation. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for Q3 2025 sits near $371, now acting as dynamic support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 65 (July 31st) remains below overbought territory but reflects strengthening momentum. This follows a bullish divergence in late July: price made a lower low on July 22nd ($343) while RSI held above its prior low (38 vs. 36). The current neutral reading provides headroom for additional gains, though traders should note the RSI approached overbought conditions three times in Q2 2025 near $420-430 peaks, preceding corrections.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the primary uptrend from the August 2024 low of $74.61 to the June 2025 high of $428.99, key Fibonacci levels emerge. The recent pullback found support near the 23.6% retracement level ($344.50), aligning with the July 22nd low of $343. Confluence exists at the 38.2% retracement ($293.77) which arrested declines in April 2025. Current price action above the 23.6% level signals resilience, with the 61.8% retracement ($210) likely serving as critical long-term support should a deeper correction materialize.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Significant confluence appears at $344-355, where the 50-day SMA, VWAP, and 23.6% Fibonacci level align with volume-supported reversals. No major divergences currently exist between price and momentum oscillators. However, caution emerges near $397-400, where Bollinger Band resistance converges with the psychological barrier and prior swing highs. A confirmed breakout above $400 on sustained volume could signal another leg toward the June highs.