AppLovin Surges Past 52-Week High on AI Hype and Analyst Hype – What’s Next?

Summary
• AppLovin (APP) trades at $365.38, up 2.78% intraday
• Citi analyst Jason Bazinet reiterates $600 price target, citing AI-driven growth
• Tradr 2X Long APP Daily ETF (APPX) jumps 5.44%

AppLovin’s (APP) 2.78% rally has sent shockwaves through the tech sector as the stock breaches $365, fueled by a Citi analyst’s $600 price target and surging AI optimism. With the 200-day moving average at $305.78 and Bollinger Bands signaling a breakout, the stock is drawing speculative and institutional attention. The Tradr 2X leveraged ETF (APPX) amplifies momentum, while options data reveals aggressive call buying ahead of July 25 expiration.

Citi’s AI-Powered Growth Thesis Ignites APP Momentum
AppLovin’s (APP) 2.95% surge is driven by Citi analyst Jason Bazinet’s reiterated $600 price target, positioning APP as a top pick ahead of earnings. The firm anticipates Q2 results exceeding guidance, driven by the AI-powered AXON platform. Options data shows 181 contracts traded for the July 25, 2025 $365 call (APP20250725C365), reflecting high conviction in a near-term breakout. The AI narrative—‘AI is eating the world’—has drawn renewed institutional interest, while the stock trades 33% below its 52-week high of $525.15.

Internet Content & Information Sector Rebounds as APP Outpaces TTD
The Internet Content & Information sector, led by The Trade Desk (TTD) with a 2.57% intraday gain, is rebounding as digital ad budgets stabilize. AppLovin’s (APP) 2.95% surge outpaces TTD’s 2.71% move, reflecting investor rotation into AI-specific ad tech plays. While TTD’s 52-week low is $26.36, APP’s $60.67 52-week low contrasts with broader sector optimism. Both stocks benefit from AI-driven ad spend recovery, but APP’s AI-centric thesis and leveraged ETF exposure (APPX) amplify its momentum.

APPX ETF and July 25 Call Options: Strategic Plays for AI-Driven Momentum
• 200-day average: $305.78 (below current price)
• RSI: 57.33 (neutral)
• MACD: -1.91 (bullish histogram divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $366, above upper band of $362.51

AppLovin’s (APP) technicals suggest a continuation of its AI-driven rally. The stock is trading above its 30-day moving average ($360.02) and 200-day average ($305.78), with RSI in a neutral range. Bollinger Bands indicate a breakout above the upper band ($362.51), suggesting strong short-term momentum. The Tradr 2X Long APP Daily ETF (APPX) offers leveraged exposure, with a 5.54% intraday gain amplifying the stock’s 2.95% rally.

Top Options Contracts:
1. APP20250725C365
• Strike Price: $365
• Expiration: July 25, 2025
• IV: 54.42% (high volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 29.40%
• Delta: 0.516415 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -1.561303 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.012796 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: 387,663
• Payoff at 5% upside: $384.30 → $19.30 per contract
• Why it stands out: High gamma and liquidity make this contract ideal for a 5% price move, with strong leverage and moderate delta for balanced exposure.

2. APP20250725C370
• Strike Price: $370
• Expiration: July 25, 2025
• IV: 55.52% (high volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 35.05%
• Delta: 0.454621 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -1.469636 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.012470 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: 1,016,940
• Payoff at 5% upside: $384.30 → $14.30 per contract
• Why it stands out: Highest leverage ratio (35.05%) and turnover (1.01M), making it the most liquid and leveraged play for a sustained rally.

Aggressive bulls should consider APP20250725C365 into a retest of the $366.02 intraday high. For higher leverage, APP20250725C370 offers a 35.05% amplification of price moves, ideal for a continued AI-driven rally.

Backtest Applovin Stock Performance
The backtest of Apple's (AAPL) performance after an intraday surge of 3% shows mixed results, with varying win rates and returns over different time frames:The data indicates that while AAPL often exhibits a positive response to a 3% intraday increase, the short-term volatility is notable, with maximum returns of only 0.68% over a 30-day period. This suggests that while there is a tendency for the stock to continue upward movement, the overall performance is somewhat muted, especially when considering the broader market context.

APP’s AI Rally Gains Legs – Position or Exit?
AppLovin’s (APP) 2.95% surge on Citi’s $600 price target and AI-driven growth narrative suggests a short-term breakout is underway. Technicals—above 200-day averages, bullish MACD divergence, and high gamma options—indicate strong momentum. The sector leader, The Trade Desk (TTD), is up 2.71%, but APP’s AI focus and leveraged ETF (APPX) are outpacing the sector. Traders should monitor the $366.02 intraday high for a potential retest and watch for a breakdown below the 30-day support at $382.48. For a continuation, APP20250725C365 and APP20250725C370 offer high-leverage, high-liquidity plays. If $366 holds, APP could test its 52-week high of $525.15 within a month.