APLT Surges 108.85% on Regulatory Optimism and Institutional Buying Frenzy

Summary
• APLT shares rocket to $1.17, up 108.85% from $0.5602
• Intraday range spans $0.5672 to $1.32, signaling extreme volatility
• Turnover hits 97.7M shares, 77.9% of float traded

Applied Therapeutics (APLT) has ignited a market frenzy, surging over 100% in a single session amid regulatory optimism and a wave of institutional buying. The stock’s meteoric rise follows a critical FDA meeting in Q3 2025 and a surge in stake-building by major investors like Schonfeld and T. Rowe Price. With a 71% post-announcement jump earlier this year and a recent settlement resolving legal claims, APLT’s rally reflects a confluence of regulatory clarity and renewed institutional confidence.

Regulatory Optimism and Institutional Buying Drive APLT's Surge
APLT’s 108.85% intraday surge stems from two pivotal catalysts: a scheduled Q3 2025 FDA meeting for its lead candidate govorestat and a surge in institutional ownership. The company’s recent presentation of 12-month clinical data at the Peripheral Nerve Society meeting, coupled with a 24-month extension of its INSPIRE trial, has reignited hopes for Subpart H approval. Simultaneously, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors and T. Rowe Price have aggressively increased stakes by 2,458% and 2,511%, respectively, signaling conviction in the drug’s potential. Legal risks also receded after a settlement resolved claims over the FDA’s Complete Response Letter, clearing a major hurdle for investor sentiment.

Options and ETF Strategies for APLT's Volatile Rally
• MACD: 0.0037 (bullish divergence), RSI: 63.8 (neutral), 200D MA: $0.523 (below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $1.17 vs. upper band $0.541 (oversold)
• K-line Pattern: Short-term bullish trend, long-term ranging

APLT’s technicals suggest a continuation of its breakout, with key support at $0.5672 and resistance at $1.32. The stock’s 1.81 beta and 173% implied volatility (IV) in the APLT20260116C1 call option highlight its speculative nature. Two top options for aggressive traders:

• APLT20260116C1 (Call, $1 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV: 173.19% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.746 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.00174 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2829 (strong gamma amplifies delta shifts)
- Turnover: $78,005 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 2.35% (moderate leverage)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($1.23): $0.13 per share, 130% return on premium
- Why it stands out: High gamma and delta make it ideal for a continuation of APLT’s upward momentum.

• APLT20260417C1 (Call, $1 strike, Apr 17 2026):
- IV: 226.21% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.830 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.00128 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.1273 (moderate gamma)
- Turnover: $5,232 (reasonable liquidity)
- Leverage: 1.57% (lower leverage)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($1.23): $0.13 per share, 83% return on premium
- Why it stands out: Longer-dated option with high delta for capitalizing on sustained rallies.

Aggressive bulls should target APLT20260116C1 into a break above $1.32.

Backtest Applied Therapeutics Stock Performance
Unfortunately the event-level back-test engine failed on the very small sample of ≥ 109 % intraday jumps (internal bug when only one or two events are found). I can work around this in two different ways:1. Treat each surge date as an “entry” signal and run a standard strategy back-test. • We buy on each ≥ 109 %-surge close and let the risk-control module exit the position automatically (e.g. after N holding days, stop-loss, take-profit, etc.). • This avoids the engine bug and still produces the post-event performance statistics you want.2. Expand the filter (for example ≥ 80 % or ≥ 50 % intraday jumps) so there are more events; then the event back-tester should work normally.Please let me know which option you prefer and, for option 1, how long you would like to hold each position after the surge (common choices are 3, 5, 10 or 20 trading days).

APLT's Volatility Presents High-Risk, High-Reward Opportunities
APLT’s 108.85% surge reflects a perfect storm of regulatory optimism and institutional backing, but its 1.81 beta and 173% IV underscore extreme volatility. The stock’s technicals and options chain suggest a continuation of the rally if the FDA meeting in Q3 2025 delivers positive news. However, the 52-week range of $0.295–$10.6237 and -1.94 PE ratio highlight its speculative nature. Investors should monitor the $1.32 intraday high as a critical resistance level and the $0.5672 support for potential reversals. With AMGN (Amgen) up 0.315% as a sector leader, APLT’s momentum may outpace peers if its regulatory path remains unobstructed. Aggressive traders: Buy APLT20260116C1 into a break above $1.32.