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On November 14, 2025, shares of
(NASDAQ: APLT) plunged 70.3329% in pre-market trading, signaling heightened investor concerns over the biopharmaceutical firm’s recent quarterly results and regulatory updates. The company reported a sharp decline in cash reserves, from $79.4 million at year-end 2024 to $11.9 million as of September 30, 2025, raising questions about its near-term liquidity and operational flexibility.

Investor sentiment remains fragile, with the stock’s volatility reflecting the high-stakes balance between potential regulatory breakthroughs and liquidity risks. Key watchpoints include the outcome of the Q4 2025 FDA meeting for classic galactosemia and whether the agency accepts sorbitol as a validated endpoint. Without a clear regulatory pathway or additional funding, Applied Therapeutics faces significant hurdles in advancing its lead candidate to market.
A backtest strategy could focus on event-driven trading around FDA meetings and cash flow thresholds. For instance, a long position might be triggered if the Q4 2025 meeting confirms a viable path for govorestat, while a short bias could emerge if cash reserves fall below $5 million. Position sizing would need to account for the stock’s high volatility and limited liquidity, emphasizing risk management through strict stop-loss parameters and dynamic hedging during critical regulatory announcements.
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