Applied Materials Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Volatile Tech Indicators

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Despite a 4.38% price increase in the last month, Applied Materials is facing mixed signals from technical and analyst data, with an internal diagnostic score of 3.72 indicating a weak technical outlook.

News Highlights

Recent news items affecting the semiconductor industry include:

• McKinsey’s Tariff Analysis: A report by McKinsey explores the impact of U.S. tariffs on the semiconductor sector, highlighting a volatile regulatory landscape that could influence Applied Materials' operations and investor sentiment.
• Japan’s Cooperation Plans: Japan has proposed increased cooperation with the U.S. in rare earths and semiconductor production, potentially helping to reduce dependency on China and address trade deficits. This could indirectly benefit Applied Materials as supply chain diversification becomes a focus.
• SOXX ETF Outflow: The US Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) faced a $750 million net outflow in May 2025, which may signal a broader shift in investor sentiment toward the sector. Such outflows could affect Applied Materials' stock price if the trend continues.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have shown a generally negative outlook for Applied Materials. The simple average rating is 3.00, while the performance-weighted rating stands at 1.95. These scores suggest that analysts are not particularly confident in the stock's future performance.

The rating consistency is mixed, as there are differences in analyst expectations. This lack of consensus may reflect uncertainty about the company's near-term prospects, especially as the stock price has risen while market expectations remain pessimistic.

Here are the key fundamental values and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY Growth Rate): -93.11% with an internal diagnostic score of 1.
• EV/EBIT: 81.18 with an internal diagnostic score of 3.
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit: 100.00% with an internal diagnostic score of 1.
• Total Profit (YoY Growth Rate): 3.35% with an internal diagnostic score of 0.
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (YoY Growth Rate): -32.85% with an internal diagnostic score of 1.
• Cash-UP: 60.92% with an internal diagnostic score of 3.
• CFOA: 4.67% with an internal diagnostic score of 2.
• Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT / Interest Expense): 34.64% with an internal diagnostic score of 2.
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders (YoY Growth Rate): -11.20% with an internal diagnostic score of 3.
• Cash-MV: -46.44% with an internal diagnostic score of 1.

These scores highlight significant challenges in operating cash flow and profitability, with only a few factors showing moderate strength.

Money-Flow Trends

Money-flow data reveals a negative trend across all categories. The overall inflow ratio is 48.25%, with both large and extra-large investors contributing to the outflow. This suggests a lack of confidence among big-money investors in Applied Materials.

Retail investors are also contributing to the outflow, with a small-inflow ratio of 48.76%. This broad-based outflow may indicate a cautious stance by investors amid the mixed technical and analyst signals.

Key Technical Signals

Recent technical indicators for Applied Materials include:

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score of 2.15. This suggests weak strength in overbought conditions.
• MACD Golden Cross: Score of 1, indicating a bearish bias despite the cross.
• Marubozu White: Score of 1, showing bearish sentiment despite a long white candle pattern.
• Dividend Payable Date: Score of 7.81, showing strong bullish bias.
• Bullish Engulfing: Score of 8.1, indicating strong bullish signal.

On September 11, 2025, the stock triggered signals for WR Overbought, Dividend Payable Date, and Marubozu White. On September 12, it triggered the WR Overbought signal again.

The overall technical outlook is weak, with bearish signals outnumbering bullish ones (5 bearish vs 2 bullish). The technical indicators suggest a volatile market with an unclear direction.

Conclusion

Investors should proceed with caution with Applied Materials. The stock has shown a recent price rise of 4.38%, but the technical and fundamental data paints a mixed picture. The internal diagnostic score of 3.72 and the weak technical outlook suggest it may be best to avoid entering or adding to positions at this time.

Actionable Takeaway: Consider waiting for a clearer trend to emerge or for stronger technical and fundamental signals before making any investment decisions in Applied Materials.