Applied Digital Surges 9.8% on $100M Loan Facility Amid AI Infrastructure Expansion

Summary
• APLD shares trade at $24.16, up 9.8% from $22.00 close
• Intraday high hits $24.83, low at $23.00
• Macquarie loan facility fuels pre-lease development for AI data centers
• Sector leader IBM declines 0.69% as APLD defies broader market trends

Applied Digital’s stock has surged nearly 10% in volatile trading after announcing a $100 million loan facility with Macquarie Group. The move comes amid mixed investor sentiment in the AI infrastructure sector, with APLD’s shares trading near a 52-week high of $40.20. The company’s strategic financing aligns with growing demand for AI-optimized data centers, though technical indicators suggest caution for near-term volatility.

Macquarie Loan Fuels Optimism on AI Campus Development
Applied Digital’s 9.8% intraday rally stems from its $100 million loan facility with Macquarie Group, announced on December 18, 2025. The pre-lease development capital supports early-stage planning for AI-optimized data center campuses, with initial draws earmarked for projects in advanced negotiations with an investment-grade hyperscaler. CEO Wes Cummins emphasized the facility’s role in accelerating site development while maintaining capital flexibility. This contrasts with earlier market jitters over Oracle’s $10 billion data center funding withdrawal, which had triggered a 9.24% APLD selloff on December 17. The loan’s alignment with customer demand and AI infrastructure growth has reignited investor confidence.

Data Processing Sector Mixed as IBM Slides
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector remains fragmented, with IBM (IBM) declining 0.69% despite APLD’s surge. IBM’s underperformance reflects broader concerns over AI hardware costs and enterprise adoption delays. While APLD’s loan facility targets AI-specific infrastructure, sector peers like IBM face challenges in scaling cloud and AI solutions profitably. This divergence highlights APLD’s niche focus on hyperscale AI campuses, which may insulate it from broader sector headwinds if demand for AI compute persists.

Options Playbook: Leveraging APLD’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• 200-day MA: $15.75 (well below current price)
• RSI: 43.14 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -0.62 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 26.84 (middle band), near upper 34.64

APLD’s technical profile suggests a short-term bounce from oversold RSI levels but remains constrained by bearish MACD and a 52-week high of $40.20. Key support at $23.04 (lower Bollinger) and resistance at $26.84 (middle band) define near-term range. The 10.8% turnover rate indicates moderate liquidity, favoring options with high gamma and theta for directional bets.

Top Call Option: APLD20251226C24
• Code: APLD20251226C24
• Type: Call
• Strike: $24.00
• Expiry: 2025-12-26
• IV: 91.87% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 16.73% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.54 (balanced sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.130 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.114 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: $241,464 (liquid)

This contract offers asymmetric upside if APLD breaks above $24.00, with gamma amplifying gains as the stock approaches the strike. A 5% price move to $25.37 would yield a payoff of $1.37 per share, or 5.5% return on the option’s premium. Ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a breakout.

Top Put Option: APLD20251226P23.5
• Code: APLD20251226P23.5
• Type: Put
• Strike: $23.50
• Expiry: 2025-12-26
• IV: 86.24% (moderate volatility)
• Leverage: 24.09% (high)
• Delta: -0.398 (moderate bearish exposure)
• Theta: -0.021 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.118 (responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: $11,946 (adequate liquidity)

This put provides downside protection if APLD retests $23.00 support. A 5% drop to $22.96 would trigger a $0.54 payoff, or 23% return. The high gamma ensures gains accelerate if the stock gaps down.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider APLD20251226C24 into a break above $24.00, while cautious bears should eye APLD20251226P23.5 for a pullback below $23.50.

Backtest Applied Digital Stock Performance
The backtest of APDL's performance after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 53.54%, the 10-Day win rate is 55.53%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.42%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 33.74% over 30 days, suggesting that APDL can deliver significant gains following a 10% intraday surge.

APLD’s AI Bet: Ride the Wave or Watch the 52-Week High
Applied Digital’s 9.8% rally hinges on its ability to execute AI campus development with Macquarie’s capital. While technicals suggest a short-term bounce, the 52-week high of $40.20 remains a distant target. Investors should monitor the $26.84 middle Bollinger Band as a critical resistance level and watch IBM’s -0.69% decline for sector sentiment. APLD’s options market reflects high volatility, with the APLD20251226C24 call offering leveraged exposure to a breakout. For now, the stock’s trajectory depends on hyperscale leasing progress and AI infrastructure demand. Watch for $24.00 breakouts or a retest of $23.00 support.