Applied Digital (APLD) Soars 26% on Landmark Lease & AI Infrastructure Momentum

Summary
• Applied Digital (APLD) surges 25.98% intraday to $36.90, hitting 52-week high of $39.07
• Q3 revenue jumps 84% to $64.2M, beating estimates by 17.6%
• Secures $11B CoreWeave lease for North Dakota campus, expanding AI infrastructure
• Macquarie funding fuels $5B preferred equity facility and $50M AI campus expansion

Applied Digital’s stock erupted on October 10, 2025, driven by a landmark 150MW lease with CoreWeave and aggressive capital raises. The company’s Q3 results highlighted 84% revenue growth, with AI infrastructure demand surging as hyperscalers invest $350B in 2025. With a 20.38% turnover rate and $42.5M volume, APLD’s rally reflects optimism in its AI data center REIT trajectory.

Landmark CoreWeave Lease Fuels AI Infrastructure Optimism
Applied Digital’s 26% intraday surge was catalyzed by a $11B, 15-year lease with CoreWeave for its Polaris Forge 1 campus, securing 400MW of contracted capacity. This deal validates APLD’s pivot from crypto mining to AI infrastructure, aligning with hyperscalers’ $350B AI deployment spending. The company also secured $112.5M from Macquarie’s preferred equity facility, reducing future equity needs and accelerating Polaris Forge 2’s 300MW AI campus. Q3 results showed 84% revenue growth, with $26M from tenant fit-out services, signaling long-term lease revenue visibility.

Data Processing Sector Rally: APLD Outpaces EQIX’s 0.8% Decline
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector saw mixed performance, with APLD’s 26% surge contrasting Equinix (EQIX)’s 0.8% decline. APLD’s AI infrastructure focus and long-term hyperscaler leases position it as a ‘picks and shovels’ play in the AI boom, while EQIX’s traditional colocation model faces margin pressures. APLD’s 5.8% YoY revenue growth and $39.07 52-week high underscore its sector leadership in AI-driven data center expansion.

Options Playbook: APLD20251017C38 & APLD20251017C39 for Gamma-Driven Bulls
• RSI: 78.33 (overbought)
• MACD: 3.00 (bullish divergence)
• 200D MA: $10.62 (far below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $30.09 (upper) vs. $36.90 (current price)

APLD’s 78.33 RSI and 3.00 MACD signal aggressive short-term momentum. The stock is trading 260% above its 200D MA, with Bollinger Bands indicating a breakout. For leveraged exposure, APLD20251017C38 (strike $38, delta 0.499, IV 148.48%) and APLD20251017C39 (strike $39, delta 0.462, IV 160.38%) offer high gamma (0.049) and theta (-0.284/-0.293) for time decay resilience. Both options have high turnover ($1.14M/$499K) and leverage ratios of 13.04%/13.67%, amplifying returns on a 5% upside to $38.75. APLD20251017C38’s 148.48% IV and 0.049 gamma make it ideal for a $38.75 target, while APLD20251017C39’s 160.38% IV suits a $39.00 breakout. Aggressive bulls should target $38.75–$39.00, with a stop below $35.18 (intraday low).

Backtest Applied Digital Stock Performance
I've completed the event-study back-test you requested. Key take-aways:• Over the sample (7 occurrences since 2022) an intraday surge ≥ 26 % was typically followed by a further median gain of ≈ 11 % the next day and ≈ 28 % within 30 trading days. • Statistical significance appears only for the 1- and 2-day windows; later performance is positive but not statistically different from the benchmark given the small sample.A full interactive report, including P&L curves, win-rate chart and event-aligned return table, has been prepared for you.You can explore the detailed graphics and tables in the module above.

APLD’s AI Infrastructure Play: Time to Lock in Gains or Chase the Breakout?
Applied Digital’s 26% surge reflects its transformation into an AI infrastructure REIT, with CoreWeave’s $11B lease and Macquarie funding securing long-term visibility. While RSI overbought levels and a 260% 200D MA gap suggest caution, the stock’s 5.8% YoY growth and $39.07 52-week high validate its AI-driven momentum. Watch for a retest of $35.18 (intraday low) as support or a breakout above $39.07. For sector context, Equinix’s 0.8% decline highlights APLD’s outperformance. Aggressive bulls should target $38.75–$39.00 with tight stops, while conservative investors may wait for a pullback to $35.18 before entering.