Apple Targets 10 Million Foldable iPhone Shipment, Betting On A Mainstream Breakout

Just days before the launch of the new iPhone 17 series, with the upcoming new phone being thoroughly "spoiled," the capital market has already started looking ahead to next year's new iPhone news.

The latest rumor centers on the highly anticipated first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Fold, which is expected to be part of Apple's 2026 lineup. Renowned industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo mentioned in a report released on Tuesday that Apple has recently significantly raised its shipment expectations for the foldable iPhone, indicating the tech giant's high hopes for the potential popularity of this new product.

Kuo wrote: "Apple recently revised its shipment forecasts for the foldable iPhone upward to 8–10 million units in 2026 and 20–25 million in 2027 (vs. previous estimate of 6–8 million and 10–15 million, respectively)."

Kuo also mentioned that the foldable iPad is expected to ship in 2028, with Apple currently projecting first-year shipments of 500,000 to 1 million units. Apple's headset family will also welcome the Vision Air in 2027, primarily addressing two core pain points of the Vision Pro—being too heavy and too expensive. The Vision Air will be 40% lighter and more than 50% cheaper. Industry surveys estimate that the Vision Air could achieve "millions of units" in shipments in its first year, far outperforming the dismal sales of the Vision Pro.

Among the three highly anticipated new Apple products, the foldable iPhone will undoubtedly have the greatest impact. For this (currently) high-priced, specially positioned model, Apple's confidence in projecting annual shipments of 10 million units shows the company believes foldable phones have become a mainstream consumer product.

For consumers in some areas, foldable phones are hardly a novelty. According to a recent International Data Corporation (IDC) report on foldable phones in China, shipments reached 4.98 million units in the first half of 2025, with Huawei accounting for 75% of the market share with 3.74 million units shipped. Since launching its first foldable phone in 2019, Huawei's cumulative shipments have exceeded 10 million units.

Meanwhile, Apple's home market, the United States, is also feeling the impact. Data from Canalys shows that Samsung's smartphone shipments in the U.S. surged in the second quarter of this year, with its market share rising from 23% to 31%, while Apple's share dropped from 56% to 49%.

There are many reasons for this phenomenon, including Samsung's ability to offer a diverse range of phones in different forms and price points, as well as Apple users increasingly extending the time between upgrades.

Here are the current leaks about the first foldable iPhone:

Design: According to well-known leaker Mark Gurman, the foldable iPhone will feature a book-style fold, similar to Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold. Kuo stated that the phone will be 9 to 9.5 millimeters thick when folded and about 4.5 to 4.8 millimeters when unfolded.

Screen: When folded, users will interact with a 5.5-inch external screen, while the unfolded screen will measure 7.8 inches, close to the size of an iPad mini. It is reported that the core selling point of Apple's foldable screen is that the "inner screen has almost no crease," which may be due to Apple's use of a metal plate to distribute stress when the screen bends. Kuo also noted that Apple will use liquid metal in the hinge to improve durability and help eliminate screen creases.

Camera: Multiple sources indicate that the foldable iPhone will have four cameras, including dual rear cameras and front-facing cameras for both folded and unfolded states. Kuo also mentioned that Apple will abandon Face ID on the foldable phone in favor of a side-mounted Touch ID button to save internal space.

Release Date and Pricing: Industry analyst Jeff Pu stated that Apple's foldable phone entered the New Product Introduction (NPI) phase at Foxconn in March of this year, with mass production expected to begin in late September or early October. Multiple leakers anticipate the phone will debut at next year's fall event.

Pricing details remain relatively vague, but it will undoubtedly be the most expensive iPhone ever. UBS analysts believe the phone will be priced between $1,800 and $2,000, while other reports suggest the U.S. price could range from $2,000 to $2,500.