Apple's Stock Faces Potential 4% Swing Today as Investors Await Earnings Report

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is set to deliver its quarterly earnings report today after the market closes, and investors are bracing for significant stock movements. The anticipation is reflected in options pricing, which suggests a potential shift of up to 4% either upward or downward by the conclusion of trading on Friday. This forecasted volatility could propel Apple’s shares beyond their recent level of $209, potentially exceeding last year’s high of $217, a mark not reached since the market disruptions following President Donald Trump's tariffs announcement. Conversely, if the stock moves downward, shares might retreat to approximately $200, a level seen roughly a month ago. Notably, Apple has experienced a 17% decrease in stock value in the year 2025 thus far.

Despite these fluctuations, Apple’s stock has consistently moved by an average of 2% after earnings announcements over the last four quarters, typically trending downward. Analysts will recall the notable 4% dip that occurred post-earnings in May when Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, disclosed the potential $900 million impact tariffs could have in the fiscal third quarter.

Analysts are keenly observing potential developments in Apple Intelligence, especially considering past issues such as Siri delays and the absence of availability in China. The tech giant is expected to report increasing quarterly sales and profits, with pre-earnings consensus amongst brokers leaning heavily towards positive ratings for the stock. Visible Alpha has tracked data from nine brokers, eight of whom have a "buy" or equivalent rating, while the remaining express reservations with one "hold" and one "sell." The average price target proposed by these analysts is around $235, which reflects approximately a 12% increase from the closing price recorded last Wednesday.

In the broader context, Apple’s performance has waned since its pivotal unveiling of Apple Intelligence at the WWDC in June 2024, which initially galvanized a 35% surge in its share price, peaking at a new all-time high of $259.47 in December 2024. Since this milestone, transparency issues concerning its AI strategy have marred investor sentiment, causing Apple to lag behind competitors who have announced definite AI-focused developments, such as data centers and new devices.

The company has recorded a dismal year-to-date decline of 12% as of July 28, marking it as one of the few laggards in the elite “Magnificent 7" group, which includes giants like Tesla. After the announcement of the US tariffs ex-post “Liberation Day," Apple has underperformed with a gain of 18.11%, compared to the impressive 40.34% positive return exhibited by the “Magnificent 7” ETF within the same timeframe.

Technical indicators point to frothy waters for Apple, as its medium-term rebound shows signs of fatigue below the critical 200-day moving average. Analysts monitoring chart patterns have identified a bearish momentum, notably evidenced by the daily RSI momentum breaching below the 50 threshold. Furthermore, the Apple versus S&P 500 ratio chart has suggested a continuing trend of relative underperformance since early July.

Conversely, a bullish outlook surfaces if Apple manages to surpass the 220.70 mark, thereby invalidating the present corrective scenario and potentially opening new avenues towards resistances at 235.10 and 246.60. Nevertheless, the preferred trend bias maintains a bearish stance, with pivotal medium-term resistance pegged between 216.20 and 220.70. A drop below 203.45 could further expose a medium-term support level at 193.55.

In light of these mixed expectations, investors and analysts remain vigilant as today’s earnings announcement and subsequent stock performance will likely impact Apple’s strategic financial positioning amid growing challenges in the tech industry.