Apple Shares Surge 7.65% in Two Days Hitting Record High at 256.64

Apple (AAPL) shares surged 4.31% in the latest session, extending gains for a second consecutive day and rising 7.65% over this period, closing at 256.08 after establishing a new high of 256.64.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a robust bullish impulse. The two consecutive long green candlesticks demonstrate strong buying conviction, with the latest session closing near its peak after testing resistance at 256.64. Notably, the prior consolidation between 236-242 from mid-September served as support before the breakout. Key near-term resistance is now established at 256.64 (intraday high), while the swing low at 240.21 (September 19) offers immediate support. A bearish reversal signal is absent currently, though the extended move warrants caution for potential profit-taking.
Moving Average Theory
Price remains favorably positioned above all key moving averages, signaling a sustained uptrend. The 50-day MA offers dynamic support around 235, while the 100-day (approximately 228) and 200-day (approximately 220) maintain their upward slopes, confirming the long-term bull bias. The sequence – with price above 50-day, 50-day above 100-day, and 100-day above 200-day – reinforces a bullish market structure. The latest surge has widened the gap above the 50-day MA, suggesting strong momentum but also increasing short-term overextension risk.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD line shows a clear bullish crossover above its signal line, with the histogram expanding positively, confirming strengthening upside momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator exhibits overbought conditions: The K-line (88) and D-line (84) have both entered overbought territory (>80), while the J-line (96) suggests extreme short-term exuberance. While this momentum supports the uptrend continuation in the near term, it flags potential exhaustion and heightens sensitivity to pullbacks or consolidation. No bearish divergence is evident yet, aligning the indicators with the prevailing trend.
Bollinger Bands
Price currently hugs the upper Bollinger Band (approximately 257), reflecting strong directional momentum. The bands began expanding notably in mid-September, shifting from a period of lower volatility (contraction) and confirming the breakout's validity. Sustained trading near the upper band underscores bullish control but also signifies elevated overbought risk. A close back inside the bands or a contraction would signal reduced momentum intensity. Support resides near the middle band (20-period SMA) around 245.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakout on September 19th was validated by a significant volume surge (163M shares), lending credibility to the bullish move. However, the most recent 4.31% advance occurred on lighter volume (105M) compared to the prior surge day. This declining volume on continuation is a cautionary sign, potentially indicating reduced conviction at current elevated levels. Overall volume patterns remain supportive of the uptrend, but sustainability near recent highs requires confirmation with renewed volume expansion.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI currently reads approximately 66, residing firmly in bullish territory but below the overbought threshold (70). This positioning suggests AAPL maintains upside momentum without exhibiting the immediate reversal warning associated with overbought conditions. The indicator has room to ascend further before signaling excessive optimism, aligning with the ongoing trend. However, should the RSI breach 70 concurrent with price deceleration or reversal patterns, it would signal heightened correction risk.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major downswing from the peak of 256.64 (Sept 22) to the significant trough at 186.06 (Dec 20, 2024) reveals critical levels. The most recent price thrust peaked precisely near the 78.6% retracement level (~257). This technically significant Fib level acted as resistance, halting the surge. Key support levels reside at the 61.8% retracement (~245) and the 50% retracement (~238). A decisive breach above 257 would open the path toward the 100% level near the all-time high.
Confluence Points and Conclusion
Technical confluence strongly supports the established uptrend: Price structure remains bullish (higher highs/lows), positioned above ascending key MAs, with confirming momentum signals (MACD crossover). Significant confluence exists around the 256-257 resistance zone, pinpointed by the daily high, Bollinger Band resistance, and the critical 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, bearish confluence emerges from the KDJ overbought reading and lighter volume on the latest advance, suggesting potential consolidation near resistance. No major divergences currently contradict the trend momentum. Probability favors a period of consolidation or minor pullback below the 257 resistance to alleviate short-term overbought pressures, with underlying bullish structure intact and primary trend support found near 238-245. Upside continuation requires sustained volume commitment above 257.