Apple's App Store Revenue Surges 12.2% Year-Over-Year

Apple's App Store revenue growth has exceeded expectations, according to the latest monthly data tracking report. The report indicates that Apple's App Store net revenue has continued to lead expectations, with a year-over-year growth of 12.2%, showing no significant impact from external link risks. Additionally, the delivery time for the iPhone 16 series has been significantly shortened, and the production volume of notebook ODMs has been increased. However, IBM's consulting job postings have seen a sharp decline, suggesting weak demand.

The App Store's revenue growth has been impressive, with net revenue growing by 11.1% year-over-year as of August 17th, down 170 basis points from July but still 12.2% year-over-year for the quarter, exceeding expectations for the September quarter by 20 basis points. This translates to an upward adjustment of 10 basis points in service growth expectations, approximately 20 million dollars.

In major markets, the year-over-year growth in net revenue from the App Store in the United States, China, and Japan has slowed compared to July. The United States saw a year-over-year growth of 10.5% in August, China saw a year-over-year growth of 5.6%, and Japan saw a year-over-year growth of 0.5%. In contrast, the net revenue from the App Store in other global regions grew by 21.0% year-over-year, slightly down from 21.4% in June.

In terms of categories, the net revenue from games grew by 2.6% year-over-year in August, down 560 basis points from July's 8.2%. Non-game App Store revenue grew by 19.7% year-over-year, down 280 basis points from July's 22.5%, driven mainly by productivity, photo and video, and entertainment app categories. Notably, despite the external link risk posed by the Epic lawsuit, the growth in U.S. App Store revenue remained consistent with the monthly trend, and net revenue per download grew by 8% year-over-year, indicating that Apple's monetization capability in the U.S. App Store has not been significantly affected.

The production forecast for notebook ODMs has been revised upwards, with an expected 33.6 million units for the third quarter, a 1% increase from the previous quarter, exceeding previous expectations. This is primarily due to strong production in July, which is expected to drive notebook shipments to 49.6 million units in the third quarter, a 5% increase from the previous quarter. However, shipments in the fourth quarter may fall short of expectations, as ODMs maintain a conservative outlook for low single-digit growth for the year. August and September production data will be key indicators, and seasonal weakness risks need to be monitored.

The job posting situation for IBM's consulting business shows that as of August 18th, the number of active job postings has decreased by 26% from the end of the second quarter, and the 90-day moving average has decreased by 16%. This is a negative signal for the growth of the consulting business in the third quarter and may indicate a downward risk for consulting revenue expectations for the remainder of 2025. If job reductions continue, it will reflect weak demand and future data for the next few weeks needs to be closely monitored.

In contrast, cloud capital expenditure has performed strongly, with a projected 58% growth to 451 billion dollars for 2025, up 2 percentage points from two weeks ago. The consensus capital expenditure adjustments for Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple have driven this growth, with the weighted average capital expenditure intensity for the top 11 cloud service providers expected to be 18.6%, up 5.5 percentage points from 13.1% in 2024. However, for 2026, market consensus predicts that cloud capital expenditure will grow by 16% year-over-year, still below expectations.

The delivery time for the iPhone 16 series has been shortened, with all models, including the iPhone 16 Pro Max, iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16e, and iPhone 16, having a delivery time of 2 days as of August 19th. Historically, the delivery times for these models have shown different trends. Additionally, the delivery times for the iPhone 16 series in international markets are generally longer than in the United States.

In the smartphone market, total shipments in May were 22.5 million units, down 21% year-over-year. iPhone shipments decreased by 10% year-over-year in May, while domestic brands decreased by 24%. In June, iPhone shipments grew by 6% year-over-year, while non-Apple smartphone shipments decreased by 24% year-over-year. It is worth noting that there is a continuous discrepancy between statistics on Apple/international supplier shipments.

Google search intensity data shows that the search intensity for the iPhone 16 is roughly equivalent to that of the iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone 13, and iPhone 12 50 weeks after their release. The fourth-generation iPhone SE had lower search intensity 27 weeks after its release compared to the first and second generations of the iPhone SE.

Additionally, the report shows that the delivery time for all models of Apple Vision Pro is 3 days, indicating stable demand. AI-related job postings have increased from 10% six years ago to 26%, with deep learning accounting for 60% of AI positions and natural language processing (NLP) accounting for 30%, demonstrating continued investment in the AI field. Consumer electronics net spending intention is at -11%, down 1 percentage point from the previous month. The hard disk drive (HDD) market is expected to see a 0.5% decrease in shipments in 2025, but ASP is expected to increase by 14%, driving industry revenue growth by 14%.