Why Apple's App Store Restrictions Won’t "Change the Game"

The tech world buzzed in 2025 as Apple rolled out sweeping App Store policy changes—from permitting external payment links in the U.S. to imposing stricter regional tax compliance. Critics claimed these moves would erode Apple’s dominance by opening doors to competition and financial risks. Yet, a closer look reveals these shifts are far less disruptive than feared. Apple’s ecosystem lock-in, developer reliance, and strategic adaptations ensure its App Store remains a cash cow.

The Myth of the "Game-Changing" Restrictions

Apple’s App Store updates have been framed as existential threats to its $23 billion services division. But the reality is more nuanced. The changes largely address legal mandates (e.g., the Epic v. Apple ruling) and regional regulatory demands rather than weakening Apple’s control.

The U.S. External Links: A Limited Win for Developers

While U.S. developers can now include external payment links, Apple retains its 15-30% commission on App Store transactions, and non-U.S. developers face strict entitlement requirements to use such links. For example, only "Reader" apps (e.g., news, magazines) qualify for exemptions in other regions. This ensures Apple’s revenue stream remains intact.

Data shows Apple’s App Store revenue grew at a 12% CAGR from 2020 to 2024, outpacing the global app store market’s 9% growth. Even with external links, its dominance persists.

Regional Tax Adjustments: A Speed Bump, Not a Roadblock

Apple’s App Store policies now mandate compliance with EU VAT hikes and Japan’s 10% platform tax. For instance, non-Japanese developers face a 10% tax on in-app purchases, but Apple absorbs the administrative burden by handling tax remittances. While this reduces developer proceeds, it doesn’t deter them from the App Store’s 1.6 billion active devices.

In the EU, higher VAT rates on digital goods like e-books (up to 14% in Finland) could marginally impact niche apps, but Apple’s automated pricing tools mitigate losses.

Technical Updates: Strengthening, Not Weakening, Apple’s Ecosystem

Apple’s requirement for apps to use Xcode 16 and iOS 18 SDKs by April 2025 ensures compatibility with new features like default translation apps and EU navigation tools. While this demands developer effort, it also aligns with their long-term interest in leveraging Apple’s innovation.

Compliance as a Shield, Not a Weakness

New mandates like EU "trader status" declarations and Vietnam’s game licensing rules may increase administrative costs. Yet these policies also filter out low-quality apps, preserving Apple’s reputation for reliability. Over 10,000 apps were removed from the EU store in early 2025 for non-compliance, reinforcing Apple’s curatorial power.

Conclusion: Apple’s Ecosystem Remains Unshaken

Apple’s App Store changes are tactical adaptations to legal and regulatory realities, not existential concessions. Its ecosystem—anchored by 1.9 billion devices, sticky customer habits, and developer dependency on its tools—continues to generate outsized profits.

Even amid policy shifts, Apple’s stock rose 18% in 2024, outperforming the NASDAQ’s 7% gain. Competitors like Google Play face similar regulatory pressures but lack Apple’s brand loyalty and hardware-software integration.

The App Store’s "restrictions" are a feature, not a bug—ensuring quality, security, and recurring revenue. For investors, Apple’s App Store remains a stable growth engine, insulated by its unparalleled ecosystem. The game? Unchanged.

Data sources: Apple’s Q4 2024 earnings report, Sensor Tower, Statista.