Apple's App Store Antitrust Risks in the EU: Implications for Tech Valuations and Investor Strategy

The European Union's antitrust enforcement against Apple has reached a critical juncture, with the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) affirming in December 2025 that Dutch courts have jurisdiction to adjudicate claims against Apple's App Store for alleged anti-competitive practices. This ruling, coupled with ongoing enforcement under the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA), has triggered a reevaluation of Apple's business model, regulatory risks, and broader implications for tech sector valuations. Investors must now grapple with the financial and strategic fallout from these developments, which could reshape the competitive landscape for digital platforms.

CJEU Ruling: A Legal Green Light for Antitrust Claims

The CJEU's December 2025 decision dismissed Apple's jurisdictional objections in a case brought by two Dutch foundations-Stichting Right to Consumer Justice and Stichting App Stores Claims-seeking €637 million in damages for users allegedly harmed by Apple's 30% commission fees on in-app purchases. The court ruled that the App Store's Dutch-language interface and targeting of Dutch Apple IDs established sufficient territorial jurisdiction for the Netherlands to handle the case. This decision not only validates the foundations' claims but also sets a precedent for similar litigation across the EU, as users in other jurisdictions may now pursue collective legal action in Dutch courts.

The ruling aligns with the EU's broader strategy to enforce the DMA, which designates Apple a "gatekeeper" and mandates structural changes to its App Store, including allowing alternative app stores and payment systems. While Apple has adjusted its fee structure in the EU-reducing standard commissions to 20% and permitting sideloading-it has appealed these requirements, arguing they are "unlawful" and undermine user security. The CJEU's jurisdictional affirmation, however, signals that regulatory pressure on Apple is unlikely to abate, even as the company challenges the DMA's implementation.

Financial and Regulatory Fallout: Penalties, Compliance Costs, and Revenue Risks

Apple's antitrust challenges in the EU have already resulted in significant financial penalties. In April 2025, the European Commission fined Apple €500 million for violating the DMA's anti-steering provisions, which prohibit gatekeepers from restricting developers from directing users to external payment methods according to a report. Apple has since modified its App Store policies but continues to appeal the fine, claiming it imposes "unprecedented" compliance burdens as reported by The Hindu.

The financial risks extend beyond fines. The potential for class-action damages claims-estimated at €637 million in the Dutch case-could escalate as similar suits emerge across the EU. According to Bloomberg, Apple's stock price dipped following the €500 million fine, reflecting investor concerns over regulatory costs and revenue erosion. Meanwhile, the DMA's requirement to allow alternative app stores and payment systems threatens to erode Apple's 30% commission revenue, which has historically been a key profit driver.

Apple's response has been to introduce a complex fee structure in the EU, including a 5% fee for alternative app stores and reduced transaction fees for developers using external payment methods as reported by AAWSAT. Critics argue this is a strategic move to maintain control while complying with the DMA's letter, rather than its spirit as noted by Foresight Valuation. Such maneuvers highlight the tension between regulatory compliance and profit preservation, a dynamic that could pressure Apple's margins in the long term.

Tech Sector Valuations and Investor Strategy Adjustments

The CJEU ruling and DMA enforcement have broader implications for tech sector valuations. As a dominant player in digital ecosystems, Apple's regulatory challenges underscore the growing scrutiny of platform gatekeepers. According to Reuters, the EU's enforcement of the DMA has already prompted other tech firms to reassess their compliance strategies, with some adjusting pricing models and distribution practices to avoid similar penalties. This regulatory shift could lead to a more fragmented digital market, where companies must navigate divergent rules across jurisdictions.

For investors, the key risks include:
1. Regulatory Uncertainty: Apple's appeals and the potential for further DMA designations as detailed by the EU Commission (e.g., for services like Apple Ads and Apple Maps) introduce long-term uncertainty.
2. Competitive Dynamics: The DMA's requirement to allow sideloading and alternative app stores could enable smaller players to compete more effectively, altering market contestability as explained by Apple's newsroom.
3. Revenue Erosion: Reduced commission rates and increased compliance costs may pressure Apple's App Store revenue, which contributed €25 billion in 2024 according to Goldman Sachs.

Investor strategies are evolving to account for these risks. Some are hedging against regulatory overreach by diversifying exposure to tech firms with less reliance on platform-based revenue. Others are monitoring the potential for U.S. antitrust legislation, as the DMA's success in the EU has spurred calls for a similar framework in the United States.

Conclusion: Navigating a Regulated Future

The CJEU's jurisdictional ruling and the EU's enforcement of the DMA mark a turning point in the regulation of digital markets. For Apple, the financial and operational costs of compliance are mounting, with potential penalties, revenue erosion, and reputational risks. For investors, the challenge lies in balancing the company's long-term growth prospects with the realities of a more regulated environment.

As the Dutch court prepares to hear the merits of the antitrust case in early 2026, the outcome will likely influence not only Apple's strategy but also the broader tech sector's approach to regulatory compliance. Investors must remain vigilant, factoring in the likelihood of increased litigation, evolving antitrust frameworks, and the potential for structural changes in digital ecosystems. In this environment, adaptability and a nuanced understanding of regulatory risk will be critical to navigating the future of tech investing.