Apollo Global (APO) Rises 3.36% on Bullish Reversal and MACD Golden Cross Despite Overbought RSI

Apollo Global (APO) Technical Analysis

Apollo Global (APO) closed the most recent session up 3.36%, reaching $143.49, suggesting a potential short-term bullish reversal from prior bearish momentum. The candlestick pattern over the last three sessions—marked by a strong bullish engulfing on 2025-09-18 following a bearish harami on 2025-09-17—indicates a shift in sentiment. Key support levels are identified at $136.37 (2025-09-17 low) and $133.64 (2025-09-10 close), while resistance is clustered at $144.04 (2025-09-17 high) and $146.7225 (2025-08-12 high).

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated from the 2025-09-18 data) sits at approximately $138.50, above the 100-day ($135.50) and 200-day ($133.00) averages, confirming an intermediate-term uptrend. The price’s current position above all three averages reinforces bullish momentum, with the 200-day line acting as a critical psychological support. A break below $133.00 could trigger a re-evaluation of the trend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram turned positive on 2025-09-18, with the line crossing above the signal line—a golden cross—suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. However, the KDJ indicator shows %K at 82.5 and %D at 78.3, indicating overbought conditions. Divergence between MACD strength and KDJ overbought readings may caution against immediate follow-through buying.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded following a period of contraction in early September, reflecting heightened volatility. The price closed near the upper band at $144.04, aligning with the 20-day volatility measure. This position suggests continuation bias, but a pullback to the middle band (~$139.50) could signal a consolidation phase.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged to 3.84 million on 2025-09-18, a 40% increase from the prior session, validating the price breakout. However, volume declined on 2025-09-17 despite a bearish close, hinting at waning bearish conviction. Sustained volume above 3.5 million per session would strengthen the case for a bullish trend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at 62, approaching overbought territory (70 threshold). Recent gains from mid-September to mid-October have driven the RSI upward, but it remains below 70, suggesting the move may not yet be exhausted. A close above 70 would trigger overbought warnings, though RSI divergence (price highs vs. RSI highs) should be monitored for early reversal signals.

Fibonacci Retracement

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 2025-09-15 low ($137.98) to the 2025-09-18 high ($144.04) highlight key levels: 38.2% at $141.50, 50% at $140.50, and 61.8% at $139.50. The current price near $143.49 suggests a possible pullback to test the 50% level as support before resuming the uptrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of a MACD Golden Cross strategy (buy on crossover, hold 10 days) yielded a -41.46% return over the tested period, sharply underperforming the benchmark’s 44.25% gain. This discrepancy highlights the risks of relying solely on momentum signals in a volatile environment. While the current MACD alignment suggests short-term bullish momentum, the backtest results caution against overreliance on this signal. Integrating Fibonacci retracement levels and volume confirmation may improve the strategy’s robustness.