APLD Surges 5.68%: Can AI Leases Sustain the Momentum?

Summary
• Applied Digital (APLD) rockets 5.68% to $35.88, hitting an intraday high of $36.78
• Turnover surges to 13.26 million shares, outpacing its 5.95% turnover rate
• $5 billion 15-year CoreWeave lease fuels speculation about APLD’s AI infrastructure pivot
• Dynamic PE of -135.6x highlights aggressive growth bets amid volatile crypto-to-AI transition

Applied Digital’s 5.68% intraday surge has ignited market frenzy, driven by a landmark $5 billion data center lease with CoreWeave. The stock’s sharp rebound from a 34.67 intraday low to $36.78 high underscores investor optimism about its AI infrastructure pivot. With a 13.26 million share turnover and a 52-week high of $40.20 in sight, the question looms: Can this momentum outlast the sector’s inherent volatility?

AI Infrastructure Leases Ignite APLD's Bullish Surge
Applied Digital’s 5.68% rally stems from a strategic pivot to AI infrastructure, anchored by a $5 billion 15-year lease with CoreWeave. This agreement, disclosed in recent press releases, validates APLD’s shift from crypto mining to high-performance computing (HPC) for AI workloads. The lease expands its North Dakota data center footprint, positioning it as a key player in the AI race. Analysts highlight that recurring revenue from hyperscalers like CoreWeave could offset operational losses and reduce reliance on volatile crypto markets, fueling short-term optimism.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on APLD’s Volatility
• MACD: 2.83 (bullish divergence from signal line 3.31)
• RSI: 49.89 (neutral, avoiding overbought/oversold extremes)
• Bollinger Bands: $26.11–$39.25 (current price near 32.68 midline)
• 200D MA: $12.56 (far below current price, signaling long-term bullish trend)

APLD’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with key support at $34.30 and resistance at $39.25. The stock’s 5.68% intraday gain aligns with its 73.7% projected annual revenue growth, but its -135.6x PE ratio warns of operational risks. For options traders, the APLD20251107C35 and APLD20251107C36.5 contracts stand out:

• APLD20251107C35
- IV: 114.27% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.604 (moderate sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.243 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.063 (strong sensitivity to gamma)
- Turnover: 139,165 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 12.14% (moderate leverage)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $1.95 (max(0, 37.67 - 35))
- Why it works: High gamma and IV make it ideal for a 5% upside scenario, with liquidity ensuring smooth entry/exit.

• APLD20251107C36.5
- IV: 114.80% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.507 (balanced sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.235 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.065 (strong gamma)
- Turnover: 38,631 (solid liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 16.02% (aggressive leverage)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $1.12 (max(0, 37.67 - 36.5))
- Why it works: Combines high leverage with moderate delta, offering outsized returns if APLD breaks above $36.50.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider APLD20251107C35 into a bounce above $36.50, while hedging with APLD20251107P36.5 for downside protection.

Backtest Applied Digital Stock Performance
Key findings1. Sample size: 161 separate ≥ 6 % daily surges between 2022-01-01 and 2025-10-31. 2. Direction: the stock tends to keep rising, posting a mean +1.3 % after 1-day and +14 % after 30-days, but…3. Statistical edge: none of the post-event returns are statistically significant and, on average, the stock lags its own benchmark move over the same windows.4. Win-rate: fluctuates around 50 %; there is no clear positive skew that could be harvested with a simple “buy-and-hold-after-surge” rule.Practical interpretation• Momentum alone (≥ 6 % daily jump) has not provided a dependable trading edge in APLD over the past three years. • Additional filters (e.g., trend confirmation, volume, broader-market sentiment) or a risk-managed strategy would be needed if you plan to trade these spikes.You can explore the full event-study dashboard below.(If the module does not load automatically, please click the refresh icon in the upper-right corner of the chart pane.)

APLD’s AI Bet: Momentum or Mirage?
Applied Digital’s 5.68% surge hinges on its ability to execute its AI infrastructure pivot, with the CoreWeave lease serving as a critical catalyst. Technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, but the -135.6x PE ratio and operational losses demand caution. Investors should monitor the $34.30 support level and $39.25 Bollinger Band resistance. Meanwhile, sector leader Equinix (EQIX) rose 0.73%, signaling broader data center demand. For APLD, the next 72 hours will test whether this rally is a sustainable inflection point or a volatile flash in the pan. Act now: Buy APLD20251107C35 if $36.50 holds, or short APLD20251107P36.5 if $34.30 breaks.