API3/Tether Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Move With Bearish Cues

• API3/Tether (API3USDT) opened at $0.8034 and surged to a 24-hour high of $0.8234 before retracing to close near $0.8010.
• Momentum waned in the final hours with bearish volume confirmation and a sharp drop below key support.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with Bollinger Bands widening and price closing near the lower band.
• RSI showed overbought conditions early, then oversold near the close, hinting at exhaustion.
• Divergence in volume and price during the decline suggests bearish conviction in the final 6 hours.

API3/Tether (API3USDT) opened at $0.8034 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET–1, reached a high of $0.8234, and closed at $0.8010 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour candle recorded a volume of ~1.46 million contracts and a notional turnover of approximately $1.18 million, reflecting elevated market participation.

The 15-minute candlestick pattern showed a sharp bullish breakout in the early afternoon, marked by a large bullish engulfing pattern at $0.8163 to $0.8234. However, this was followed by a rapid reversal with bearish hammers and a doji near the session’s low. Key support levels include $0.8005 and $0.7965, with $0.8005 acting as a recent pivot. Resistance sits at $0.8102 and $0.8166. The price has tested the 20-period and 50-period moving averages multiple times, but has now closed below both on the 15-minute chart. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) are likely still bullish if in alignment, but the 15-minute timeframe has turned bearish.

The MACD line crossed below the signal line mid-day, confirming bearish momentum. RSI moved into oversold territory after hitting overbought levels early, suggesting exhaustion on both ends. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the peak volatility, with the price dropping below the lower band in the final 3 hours, indicating a potential exhaustion of the bearish move.

Volume spiked during both the bullish and bearish phases but diverged from price in the final hour, with volume declining while the price continued to fall. This divergence raises caution about further downward extension. Fibonacci retracement levels of 61.8% and 78.6% on the key $0.8034–$0.8234 swing are at $0.8109 and $0.8075 respectively, with the current close near the 61.8% level.

The price may test the $0.7965–$0.8005 support zone in the next 24 hours, with a strong close below $0.7965 signaling a deeper correction. Investors should watch for volume confirmation or divergence during the next bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term strategy could involve entering a long position at the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart when price breaks above it with increasing volume. A stop-loss could be placed below the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. Exit the trade on a close below the 20-period moving average or when RSI enters overbought territory. This approach leverages the observed bullish momentum and volume confirmation during the initial breakout. A trailing stop could be used during strong upward momentum to lock in gains.