API3/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-09

• API3/USDT surged to $0.7536 before correcting sharply to $0.7024.
• Strong volume spiked at the peak, followed by divergent price-volume action in the pullback.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions at the peak, with mixed momentum signals in the correction.

The API3/Tether (API3USDT) pair opened at $0.6285 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.7536 during the early session, and closed at $0.7024 by the same time on 2025-11-09. Total 24-hour volume was 14,023,562.33, while notional turnover amounted to $9,384,465. The pair displayed a sharp upward move, followed by a broad-based consolidation and partial reversal.

The price structure showed a strong bullish impulse during the overnight Asian session, with a 15-minute candle closing at $0.7448 and opening at $0.6432, marking a massive 15.5% move. This was confirmed by high volume—over 3.2 million contracts traded during that interval—suggesting strong institutional or large-cap participation. However, the following 15-minute candles saw declining volume and a reversal in price, signaling potential exhaustion and a bearish divergence. A long upper shadow and a large bearish engulfing pattern formed after the peak, indicating aggressive profit-taking.

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price during the rally, confirming the bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period SMAs intersected near $0.68–$0.69, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend if the near-term pullback is resolved. The pair appears to be within the upper Bollinger Band during the peak but has since retracted to the middle band. The 20-period Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the move up, indicating increased volatility.

RSI reached overbought levels (above 70) during the surge and has since pulled back below 50, suggesting a return to neutral momentum. MACD showed a bullish crossover early in the session but has since flattened, hinting at a slowdown in upward momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent swing high ($0.7536) to the swing low ($0.6431) show 61.8% and 78.6% levels near $0.706 and $0.727, respectively. The current close of $0.7024 sits just below the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential area of support and a possible bounce.

The volume profile revealed a critical divergence: high volume during the peak was not matched by equivalent volume during the pullback, suggesting potential bearish continuation. Notional turnover also dropped significantly from its peak of $950k to less than $200k during the reversal, reinforcing the bearish divergence. Traders should monitor the 61.8% Fibonacci and 50-period SMA for further direction. A retest of the $0.7024 level could either consolidate the correction or break down to the next support level near $0.6750, which is aligned with the 50-period SMA on the daily chart.

The market could consolidate in the $0.6750–$0.7025 range over the next 24 hours, with volatility expected to normalize. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level could reignite the bullish trend, while a close below $0.6750 would likely trigger a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical analysis highlights the importance of RSI and momentum divergences in identifying overbought conditions and potential reversals in API3/USDT. Given that the RSI reached overbought levels during the sharp upward move, a backtest strategy based on RSI overbought signals could provide valuable insights into the efficacy of such triggers in this market. The proposed strategy—“Buy on overbought RSI (>70), sell on a 5% price decline”—is a simple yet commonly used approach to test mean-reversion assumptions.

Applying this strategy from 2022-01-01 to today would require accurate historical RSI data for API3USDT. As noted, the system encountered an error in retrieving this data, likely due to symbol or exchange mismatches. Once the correct ticker (e.g., BINANCE:API3USDT) is confirmed, the strategy can be backtested. A successful implementation would generate a performance report including win/loss ratios, risk-adjusted returns, and visualizations of entry and exit points. This would help assess whether overbought RSI signals are reliable entry points in API3/USDT and whether a 5% stop-loss rule effectively manages risk.