Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) Surges 10.27% on FDA Approval Momentum and Strategic Deals

Summary
• APLS stock gaps up 10.27% intraday to $26.355, driven by FDA approvals and $300M royalty deal with Sobi
• Turnover spikes to 2.49M shares, outpacing 52W average
• RSI hits 72.78 (overbought), MACD crosses above signal line
• Sector leader Amgen (AMGN) up 1.41% as biotech sector consolidates post-earnings

Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) is surging on a perfect storm of regulatory wins, strategic partnerships, and renewed analyst optimism. With a 10.27% intraday rally pushing shares to $26.355, the stock is trading near its 52-week high of $41.94. The move follows FDA approval of EMPAVELI for C3G and IC-MPGN, plus a $300M ex-US royalty deal with Sobi. Technicals show aggressive momentum with RSI in overbought territory and MACD divergence suggesting potential continuation.

FDA Approval and Royalty Deal Fuel APLS Surge
Apellis' 10.27% intraday rally is directly tied to two catalysts: (1) FDA approval of EMPAVELI as the first treatment for C3G and IC-MPGN in patients 12+ years, expanding its therapeutic footprint beyond GA, and (2) a $300M ex-US royalty deal with Sobi for Aspaveli. These developments validate the company's complement inhibition platform and unlock new revenue streams. Analysts at HC Wainwright and Robert W. Baird have reiterated 'Buy' ratings, while insider selling activity has subsided following recent legal settlements. The stock's 52W high retest at $26.66 suggests short-term bullish momentum.

Biotech Sector Consolidates as APLS Outperforms
The broader biotech sector remains range-bound, with Amgen (AMGN) up 1.41% as the sector leader. While APLS' 10.27% move is exceptional, peers like BioMarin (BMRN) and Vertex (VRTX) trade within 2% of their 200-day averages. The sector's focus on gene therapy and rare disease approvals aligns with APLS' complement inhibition strategy, but APLS' recent FDA milestones and monetization of ex-US rights create a unique value proposition. The $300M Sobi deal also demonstrates the sector's appetite for royalty monetization, a trend that could accelerate in Q4.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on APLS' Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 1.42 (bullish divergence), RSI: 72.78 (overbought), 200D MA: $24.52 (below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 25.92 (upper band), 21.43 (middle), 16.95 (lower)
• 200D support: $17.12–17.50, 30D support: $19.78–19.92

APLS' technicals suggest continuation of the bullish trend, with key resistance at $26.66 (52W high) and support at $23.99 (intraday low). The 72.78 RSI reading indicates overbought conditions, but the MACD's positive divergence and strong volume suggest momentum could persist. For options traders, the APLS20250919C25 and APLS20250919C26 contracts offer optimal leverage and liquidity.

• APLS20250919C25 (Call):
- Strike: $25, Expiry: 2025-09-19
- IV: 41.33% (moderate), Leverage: 11.17%, Delta: 0.71 (moderate), Theta: -0.0346 (high decay), Gamma: 0.0961 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 8,821, Volume: 39
- Payoff at 5% upside ($27.67): $2.67/share
- This call offers balanced leverage with strong gamma to capitalize on price acceleration.

• APLS20250919C26 (Call):
- Strike: $26, Expiry: 2025-09-19
- IV: 39.12% (moderate), Leverage: 15.64%, Delta: 0.608 (moderate), Theta: -0.0333 (high decay), Gamma: 0.1145 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 3,769, Volume: 30
- Payoff at 5% upside ($27.67): $1.67/share
- This contract provides higher leverage with robust gamma, ideal for aggressive bulls.

Aggressive bulls should consider APLS20250919C26 into a break above $26.66 (52W high). If $23.99 support holds, the APLS20250919P25 put could offer downside protection.

Backtest Apellis Stock Performance
The backtest of APPLS's performance after a 10% intraday surge indicates mixed results. While the 10-day win rate is relatively high at 53.83%, the actual return during this period is only 0.40%, with a maximum return of 3.36% occurring on day 56. This suggests that although there is a good probability of a positive return in the short term, the overall performance is modest, and the stock does not consistently follow through on the initial surge.

APLS at Inflection Point: Ride the Wave or Hedge the Volatility
Apellis Pharmaceuticals stands at a critical juncture with its 10.27% rally driven by FDA validation and monetization of ex-US rights. The stock's 72.78 RSI reading and MACD divergence suggest momentum could extend toward $28.50 (200D MA + 20%), but overbought conditions warrant caution. Sector leader Amgen's 1.41% gain indicates biotech remains in consolidation mode, making APLS' outperformance even more notable. Investors should monitor the $26.66 (52W high) and $23.99 (intraday low) levels, with options traders favoring the APLS20250919C26 call for aggressive upside exposure. If Amgen's 1.41% move signals sector strength, APLS could see renewed institutional buying.