ApeCoin/Tether (APEUSDT) Market Overview

• APEUSDT fell from $0.4124 to $0.3686, breaking key support levels with high volatility and volume.
• Momentum indicators showed oversold conditions, while volume surged during the selloff.
• A Bearish Engulfing pattern confirmed the downtrend, aligning with historical backtest signals.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as price dropped below the 20-period moving average.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential bounce from the 61.8% level at ~$0.374–$0.38.

ApeCoin/Tether (APEUSDT) opened at $0.4012 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3686 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.4124 and low of $0.3476 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 7.3M, and notional turnover hit ~$2.87M, indicating intense selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong Bearish Engulfing pattern during the overnight hours, confirming the breakdown below key psychological levels near $0.40 and $0.39. The structure shows a clear short-term downtrend with support now at $0.36–$0.37. Resistance is likely to remain untested for the near term unless a strong reversal emerges.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum. For the daily chart, APEUSDT remains below the 50, 100, and 200-day averages, indicating a broader bearish bias. Crossovers suggest further consolidation or continuation could follow depending on volume dynamics.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped to ~32 in the final hours of the 24-hour period, indicating oversold conditions, though not extreme enough to suggest an immediate bounce. The MACD turned bearish, with a negative histogram and bearish crossover, reinforcing the likelihood of further downward movement in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the price dropped sharply below the lower band, indicating increased volatility. The move suggests a high degree of short-term uncertainty. A retest of the bands may offer a chance for a rebound, but only with confirmation in volume and price action.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown, especially during the 15:30–16:00 ET period on 2025-11-03, aligning with the lowest point of the 24-hour range. Notional turnover also increased sharply, indicating aggressive selling. Price and volume aligned during the drop, giving credibility to the bearish move and reducing the likelihood of immediate reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential support at the 61.8% level (~$0.374–$0.38). A rebound from this area could see a test of the 50% level (~$0.395) if buyers step in. However, without a strong bullish reversal candle, the 38.2% level is unlikely to hold for long.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Bearish Engulfing pattern confirmed late in the 24-hour window aligns with a historically effective sell strategy. Backtests from 2022 to present have shown the pattern to be a reliable indicator of downward momentum, with profitability achieved when the pattern is fully formed and price breaks below key levels. This pattern supports a continued bearish outlook in the near term, reinforcing the potential for further price contraction.