Aon's Sharp Intraday Slide: What's Behind the 2.28% Drop?

Summary
• Aon (AON) plunges 2.28% to $338.28, breaking below its 200-day moving average of $363.13
• CFO Edmund Reese's Goldman Sachs conference presentation sparks investor scrutiny
• MACD histogram hits -0.324 while RSI dips to 46.87, signaling bearish momentum

The insurance broker's intraday selloff has drawn sharp focus as it trades near its 52-week low of $323.73. With the stock down $8.91 from its opening price of $346.42, the move coincides with Edmund Reese's strategic update at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference. Technical indicators and options activity suggest a critical juncture for the $338.28 level, which now sits just above the Bollinger Band lower bound of $341.90.

Goldman Sachs Conference Participation Sparks Intraday Volatility
The 2.28% decline in Aon's stock price emerged as CFO Edmund Reese detailed the company's strategic priorities during the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference. While Reese emphasized Aon's 1.5-year track record of organic growth and margin expansion, the presentation coincided with a sharp selloff in risk assets. The timing aligns with broader market concerns about insurance sector valuations, as Aon's dynamic PE ratio of 27.24 lags behind its 52-week high of $412.97. Options data reveals heightened bearish positioning, with the AON20260116P330 put option showing 52.17% price change and 20.90% implied volatility, suggesting institutional hedging ahead of the conference.

Insurance Brokers Sector Under Pressure as Aon and WTW Both Retreat
The Insurance Brokers sector faces synchronized weakness as Aon's 2.28% decline mirrors Willis Towers Watson's (WTW) 2.35% drop. Both stocks trade below their 52-week highs by over 18%, reflecting investor caution about margin sustainability in a low-growth environment. While Aon's free cash flow conversion of 13.54% over three years outperforms the sector average, the recent pullback suggests market skepticism about its $338.28 valuation relative to peers. The sector's defensive characteristics appear compromised as both Aon and WTW trade with RSI below 50, indicating potential for further consolidation.

Bearish Positioning Gains Momentum: Key Options and Technical Levels
• 200-day MA: $363.13 (well below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $354.32 (upper), $348.11 (middle), $341.90 (lower)
• RSI: 46.87 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -0.296 (bearish divergence)

The technical landscape favors short-term bearish positioning as Aon trades near its 52-week low. Key support at $341.90 (lower Bollinger Band) and resistance at $348.11 (middle band) define a critical trading range. The AON20251219P320 put option (strike $320, expiring 12/19) offers 555.22% leverage with -0.088 delta, ideal for capitalizing on a potential 5% downside to $321.37. This contract's 26.21% implied volatility and -0.015 theta suggest strong near-term bearish potential. For longer-dated exposure, the AON20260116P330 put (strike $330, 20.90% IV) shows 69.12% leverage and -0.319 delta, offering downside protection through January 16. Both options exhibit strong gamma (0.011-0.016) and liquidity, with the latter showing $7,050 turnover. If $338.28 breaks below $336.44 intraday low, the AON20260116P330 put becomes a strategic play for capital preservation.

Backtest Aon Stock Performance
After experiencing a -2% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present, AON (American International Group) has shown a mixed performance in the subsequent days. The backtest data reveals that the 3-day win rate is 52.24%, the 10-day win rate is 60.98%, and the 30-day win rate is 59.49%. While the stock has managed to recover slightly, with a maximum return of 2.36% over 30 days, the overall performance remains relatively modest, indicating that the intraday plunge has led to a period of subdued gains.

Critical Support Levels and Sector Sentiment Define Immediate Outlook
Aon's intraday breakdown below $336.44 creates a pivotal test of its 52-week low support at $323.73. With RSI in oversold territory and MACD divergence intact, the $341.90 Bollinger Band lower bound becomes a critical psychological level. Sector leaders like WTW (-2.35%) reinforce the bearish narrative, suggesting further consolidation is likely. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $363.13 as a potential reversal trigger while keeping a close eye on the AON20260116P330 put option's liquidity profile. If the stock fails to reclaim $348.11, a retest of the 52-week low becomes increasingly probable. Aggressive short-sellers may consider the AON20251219P320 put for a 5% downside scenario, while defensive investors should prioritize the AON20260116P330 put for longer-dated protection.